Kingmakers or Pariahs? Arab-Led Parties Hold Key to Israel's Next Government

In the lead-up to Israel’s pivotal election, the Ra’am and Joint List parties, representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, have become frequent targets of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rhetoric. These parties, projected to collectively win 13 seats, could prove decisive in forming any post-election coalition, irrespective of its political leaning. This scenario echoes past events, notably in 2021 when Ra’am made history by joining an Israeli government coalition that briefly ousted Netanyahu. Previously, Netanyahu had indicated a willingness to negotiate with Ra’am’s leader, Mansour Abbas, but Abbas ultimately allied with the coalition led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid to advance his campaign objectives. This election cycle, both Netanyahu’s camp and the majority of the self-styled Zionist opposition bloc have publicly stated they will not form a government with parties representing Palestinian citizens. Despite this, Netanyahu and his allies have attempted to portray their rivals as dependent on these Arab-led lists, while the opposition has criticized their reliance on minority ultra-Orthodox parties for their own power base. Opinion polls consistently show a tight race between Netanyahu’s Likud party and its far-right coalition, and the Zionist opposition bloc, with neither side appearing poised to secure an outright majority in the 120-seat Knesset.

“Netanyahu would work with Ra’am in a heartbeat, if it meant staying in power,” observed Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House. He added, “The opposition, too, don’t seem to understand the consequences of their actions,” referring to efforts within the opposition bloc to discredit potential future coalition partners. “If it came down to it, of course they’d accept the support of the party they’d previously vilified without thinking of how that will undermine their government, and undermine the votes of the large numbers of Arab Israelis who support them,” Mekelberg elaborated.

Likud has employed strong attack advertisements, warning that an election loss for Netanyahu could position the Arab parties as kingmakers in a government potentially headed by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party. A Likud campaign slogan highlighted this, stating, “There is no Gadi without [Ahmad] Tibi,” referencing the leader of Ta’al, a constituent party of the Joint List. The Joint List, which also includes Hadash and Balad factions, has indicated it could offer a “safety net” to an anti-Netanyahu coalition by abstaining from confidence votes, even without joining the government. In return, the alliance seeks concessions, including progress towards Palestinian statehood and measures to combat organized crime. Ra’am has also prioritized addressing the surge in violent crime within Palestinian communities and challenging discriminatory government policies, particularly concerning housing.

Established in 1996, Ra’am has evolved from its religiously conservative roots. In December 2025, Abbas announced that the party’s decision-making body would separate from its religious council. Eight months later, the party selected its electoral list independently for the first time, notably placing Yoav Segalovitz, a Jewish Zionist, former senior police commander, and deputy public security minister in the Bennett-Lapid government, second on its slate. Mekelberg described Ra’am as “one of the most interesting parties” in this election, noting, “Through Mansour Abbas, they are continually reinventing themselves without appearing opportunist.”

The upcoming election occurs in the aftermath of the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, which resulted in approximately 1,200 deaths and initiated Israel’s war on Gaza. This conflict has accelerated a political shift to the right, with Arab-led parties increasingly facing accusations from right-wing figures of complicity in the October 7 assault. In May, Naftali Bennett apologized for entering into a coalition with Ra’am, and in September, Likud and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudi party petitioned to disqualify Ra’am and the Joint List from the election. On September 23, the Central Elections Committee voted to disqualify both lists, along with two individual candidates. Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh was slated for disqualification over an article he wrote on October 8, 2023, which characterized the previous day's Hamas-led attack as an “important historic event.” Ofer Cassif, a Jewish politician with Hadash, was targeted by Likud for allegedly supporting “an armed struggle by an enemy state or terrorist organisation against the State of Israel.” On October 2, the Supreme Court unanimously overturned the disqualifications of the Joint List, Ra’am, and Cassif, with a 7-2 majority regarding Cassif. Abu Shehadeh had withdrawn his candidacy prior to the court's decision, anticipating his disqualification. Cassif described the court's decision as “a political decision far more than a judicial one,” driven by “fear that they’re going to need us.” Orly Noy, a Balad candidate, stated it was “safe to say” the alliance would not be part of the next ruling coalition, adding, “It depends if the other parties want to prioritise the wishes of their voters or their own racism. However, even if we’re excluded, we can still gain concessions from any coalition in return for our support,” she concluded, noting that while ending the occupation is ideal, improving people's lives remains a possibility.

The repercussions of October 7 have extended beyond Arab parties, impacting ultra-Orthodox Jewish parties as well. As traditional partners in Likud-led coalitions, they have faced criticism from opponents regarding draft-dodging and reliance on state welfare. Israel's ultra-Orthodox community is primarily represented by Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ). Shas represents Jews of Spanish, North African, and Middle Eastern descent, while UTJ comprises Jews of Central and Eastern European descent. Both parties are polling around seven to eight seats. Their primary objectives include securing exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox students, maintaining welfare support for large families where many men are engaged in religious study, and ensuring state funding for their educational institutions. Once considered Netanyahu’s staunchest allies, they broke with Likud last year over the failure to legislate a draft exemption. UTJ left the coalition entirely, while Shas resigned from the government but maintained its parliamentary coalition support. Both parties subsequently boycotted coalition bills. The support of the ultra-Orthodox has come at a political cost, with opposition leader Yair Lapid accusing the government of allocating billions to “the corrupt and [the] draft dodgers,” and Avigdor Lieberman, head of the Yisrael Beytenu list, comparing Shas and UTJ to the Taliban due to their lack of female representation.