Arab Vote: A Potential Decisive Factor in Israeli Elections Amidst Growing Far-Right Concerns

Umaima Luwabneh, unlike many in her community, is resolute in her decision to vote in Israel’s upcoming elections, a choice deeply influenced by the memory of her son, Iyad. Iyad was killed by police last year amidst a surge in violent crime that has significantly impacted Israel’s Arab community since Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assumed power. One of Netanyahu’s most contentious appointments was Itamar Ben-Gvir, an ultranationalist, as the minister overseeing the police force. Ben-Gvir has a record of eight convictions, including for racism and for supporting an anti-Palestinian terrorist organization.

"There’s a very severe negligence on the part of the Israeli state at the moment," Ms. Luwabneh stated to The National. She was speaking outside a modest gathering in Nazareth, organized by activists aiming to boost Arab voter turnout. "I have come to help people understand that they have to go to vote. I would say it’s even mandatory," she emphasized during a break between speeches and musical performances in both Hebrew and Arabic. "If we change the government hopefully there will be security and peace. If we don’t, it will be a big problem." Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel’s National Security Minister and leader of the far-right Otzma Yehudit party, has overseen a crackdown that has disproportionately affected the Israeli Arab community.

Ms. Luwabneh’s personal tragedy motivated her to join a group of Arab and Jewish-Israeli campaigners, a somewhat unusual sight in the current polarized political climate. Mr. Ben-Gvir was a frequent topic of discussion among the activists. The task for these campaigners is substantial, given that Palestinians holding Israeli passports constitute approximately 20 percent of Israel’s population, yet only about 50 percent of eligible voters from this demographic participated in the last elections.

Pollster Dahlia Scheindlin informed The National that efforts to increase voter engagement may be proving effective. "There’s high expectation of high turnout relative to last time. We’re looking at 60 per cent, possibly more than that. I can’t predict it, but that’s what polls have been showing and it's very much backed by anecdotes. All my Arab friends, colleagues and people on the street are saying the same thing: we all want to go vote and that there’s a huge fear factor about Itamar Ben-Gvir being in the next government." Should a significant portion of this community vote in the upcoming 2026 elections, they could represent a crucial bloc in Israel’s complex electoral landscape, where a single seat in the 120-member Knesset can determine the formation of a coalition. With polls indicating a potential deadlock, the Arab vote is emerging as a closely watched trend.

Palestinian citizens of Israel, descendants of those who remained within the territory after 1948, have long contended with discrimination and are often targeted by the growing right-wing movement, particularly during election periods. Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition has introduced challenges of a different magnitude, including restrictions on freedom of expression, an increase in far-right intimidation, underinvestment, and violence in the occupied West Bank, alongside the devastation in Gaza.

Despite historical challenges and the current difficult circumstances, the conference in Nazareth aimed to foster optimism under the banner “This Time We Can,” organized by the Israeli-Palestinian activist group Standing Together. This movement had briefly fielded a political party but disbanded it due to concerns about further fragmenting the vote on the left. Their current focus is on mobilizing Arab Israeli voters. The event, held near the Church of the Annunciation, drew a largely older audience. While the energy was less intense than that of the far-right’s campaign events, which are propelled by ideological momentum often at the expense of Palestinians, the message of participation resonated.

Even in Nazareth, a predominantly Palestinian area, the influence of the far-right was evident. Election posters for Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud Party were visible, some even within the city, criticizing Arab parties and left-wing Jewish candidates. Near Nazareth, young religious Jewish activists displayed pro-government flags and signs, mirroring displays found in settlements in the occupied West Bank. A significant part of the far-right’s agenda over the past four years has involved delegitimizing Arab parties, often led by government figures. Several Arab politicians and parties faced disqualification attempts by the Central Elections Committee, with some, like Sami Abu Shehadeh, withdrawing from races after judicial review indicated they would likely be disqualified.

The court also reviewed decisions to disqualify a far-left Jewish Knesset member and two Arab parties, Ra’am and the Joint List, eventually overturning the bans. This situation is notable, especially considering that just four years prior, Arab parties were integral to the “government of change” coalition led by Naftali Bennet and Yair Lapid. Many opposition leaders, including some who previously partnered with Arab parties, have now pledged not to do so again, despite the potential significance of the Arab vote for forming an opposition government.

Faced with these obstacles, conference participants urged attendees to prioritize voting. Political scientist Dr. Thair Abu Rass, a Palestinian citizen of Israel, described the upcoming elections as “the most important elections of our lives.” He highlighted the sharp increase in murders under Mr. Ben-Gvir and the government’s actions concerning Israel’s judiciary, which had previously sparked widespread protests. Dr. Abu Rass argued that a weakened judiciary in an increasingly right-wing Israel would have dire consequences for Palestinian citizens, potentially leading to a scenario where “the law of the majority, the law of the strongest” prevails, with implications extending beyond Israel’s borders.