Iran War and Living Costs Fuel Pressure on Trump's Foreign Policy Ahead of US Midterms

US foreign policy has emerged as a significant factor in this year's midterm elections, largely due to President Donald Trump's conflict with Iran and its subsequent impact on the cost of living for Americans. Republicans currently hold majorities in both chambers of Congress, while Democrats aim to regain influence on November 3rd, following a two-year period in opposition after a disappointing performance in the 2024 presidential election. A Democratic victory in either the House or the Senate would grant the opposition enhanced powers to challenge Mr. Trump's agenda, including the ability to initiate investigations and summon witnesses to testify regarding the administration's actions.

Recent polls indicate an over 85 percent likelihood of Democrats winning the House, where they need to secure only a few additional seats. The Senate presents a more challenging prospect for Democrats, who require a gain of four seats to achieve a majority, with at least two of those seats needing to come from states that Mr. Trump carried by significant margins in 2024.

The cost of living, particularly the surge in petrol prices, has become a central issue in many US political discussions. Prices have escalated by nearly 50 percent since Mr. Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initiated their conflict with Iran on February 28th. Diesel fuel, essential for the trucking industry, has seen an even steeper increase, rising by approximately two-thirds. Consequently, costs for farmers, truckers, and businesses have soared, with these increased expenses often being passed on to consumers.

"The Republican Party and candidates are being killed by the higher prices," stated Kristin Diwan, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, in comments to The National. "To the extent that people blame them on the Iran war, that is also a liability. The war is extremely unpopular and that crosses party lines." Mr. Trump has attempted to mitigate price increases by permitting Russia to export diesel, a move that causes unease among many Americans.

A survey released this month by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs revealed that 86 percent of Americans believe the Iran war has negatively affected the cost of living, and 68 percent consider the conflict not worth fighting. Dina Smeltz, managing director and chairwoman of public opinion and foreign policy at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, observed that the administration's policies have made the connection between international affairs and household finances more evident. “By disrupting some of the stability in traditional US foreign policy stances, the Trump administration’s policies seem to have sharpened how Americans link US actions abroad and their daily lives,” she commented.

The same survey indicated that 72 percent of respondents felt the conflict had damaged America's relationships with its allies. Andrew Payne, research director for Europe, Russia and the Americas at Chatham House, noted that these elections represent an unusual juncture where international affairs could influence domestic political outcomes. "Foreign policy rarely decides US elections," he wrote in an analysis published on October 15th. "But this year, the economy is foreign policy."

Polls conducted this month show Mr. Trump's approval ratings reaching new lows, with Americans expressing particular dissatisfaction regarding the economy and the cost of living. An AP-Norc survey indicates that 65 percent of US adults attribute higher-than-usual prices to Mr. Trump’s policies, a notable increase from October 2022, when 44 percent of the public held similar views regarding President Joe Biden's policies. Furthermore, a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Monday placed Mr. Trump's approval rating at a record low of 31 percent.

"Even though foreign policy may not dominate any given race, it is likely to matter at the margins. And in a tight race, that could make all the difference," Mr. Payne added. Many Republican candidates are facing significant challenges as they attempt to distance themselves from certain Trump administration policies. Mr. Trump initially campaigned on a promise to avoid foreign military entanglements and reduce the cost of living; however, he initiated a new war, and inflation has risen more than anticipated since he took office.

Regarding the Iran war, Mr. Trump initiated military operations without prior congressional authorization, sparking a debate over the extent of presidential war powers. With the support of four Republican representatives, the House of Representatives has already voted to limit Mr. Trump's war powers, although the Senate has not concurred. A Democratic majority in either chamber would likely intensify friction with the White House over the Iran conflict, which Mr. Trump has stated will conclude one way or another immediately following the midterms. If victorious, Democrats are expected to convene numerous hearings to examine the true financial cost of the war and the preparedness of the US military for a new conflict in the Middle East. These hearings would serve as a platform for Democrats to shape the narrative as voters begin to consider the 2028 presidential election.

A Democratic majority in Congress could also have broader foreign policy implications. US military aid to Israel, sanctions, and Washington's diplomatic relations with governments across the Gulf could all face increased congressional scrutiny. The war in Ukraine might also become a contentious issue for Republicans in the midterms, particularly given Mr. Trump's decision to waive sanctions, allowing Russian diesel exports. This move has drawn condemnation from both Republicans and Democrats, and a recent YouGov poll of over 5,500 US adults indicated opposition to the agreement.

Governments throughout the Middle East will be observing the extent to which Democrats may constrain Mr. Trump and whether the election will lead to a fundamental shift in US foreign policy or simply impede the President's ability to implement his agenda. "The Democratic Party has shown more skepticism about favorable deals with Saudi Arabia. This will make legislation such as the nuclear agreement [with Riyadh] more difficult to pass through Congress, although probably not beyond Trump's veto power," Ms. Diwan noted. She also pointed out that Mr. Trump has a history of not deferring to Congress, even when legally obligated. "I don’t think the defeat in the election will constrain him," she concluded.