Gaza Residents Postpone Major Life Decisions, Awaiting Israeli Election Outcome

In Gaza, the future of a destroyed supermarket, a family home, and even a wedding hangs in the balance, dependent on an election in Israel in which the affected Palestinians have no vote. Munir Abu Wadi, who owns a supermarket in the Jabalia refugee camp, is delaying the rebuilding of his business until after the Israeli election on October 27, hoping for a change in leadership. "Many people have put their lives on hold until after the Israeli election," Mr. Abu Wadi told The National. "I am one of them." Across Gaza, residents report that decisions regarding family life and business have been put on hold in anticipation of the vote. For some, after years of conflict and displacement, the Israeli election represents a potential turning point, though they acknowledge that a government change might not bring immediate improvements. "We always believe tomorrow might be better than today," Mr. Abu Wadi stated. "That is why many people in Gaza are pinning their hopes on the Israeli election and hoping the Netanyahu government will fall." The composition of the next Israeli government will influence critical issues such as Gaza's reconstruction, the disarmament of Hamas, and international responses to settlements in the occupied West Bank. Israelis are electing 120 members of the Knesset, with the final government formation depending on coalition negotiations. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is competing against an opposition that includes former general Gadi Eisenkot, whose party, according to recent polls, is performing at or near the level of Mr. Netanyahu's Likud party. Generally, the Israeli opposition advocates for a firm stance on Palestine and Iran, often criticizing Mr. Netanyahu's handling of these conflicts rather than proposing concessions. Nevertheless, for the people of Gaza, the election has become a focal point for planning deeply personal decisions. Mustafa Mousa, 30, has resisted family pressure to get engaged for months. While his house is still under reconstruction, he believes marriage requires more than just financial and housing stability; it also demands "stability and peace of mind," he told The National. Mr. Mousa intends to wait until the election results provide a clearer outlook on Gaza's future before proceeding with an engagement. "The election may not affect us immediately but its outcome will certainly influence the detail of daily life," he explained. "I told my family that I would postpone my engagement and marriage until after the Israeli election." The calculation differs but carries similar weight for Mahdi Abu Al Qumsan, 52, whose home in Gaza city was destroyed during an Israeli military operation. Mr. Abu Al Qumsan and his family of 11 are currently displaced and living in Deir Al Balah. He plans to clear the rubble from his home and construct a basic shelter using available materials like plastic sheets, tarpaulin, wood, and stones. Although he has begun collecting materials, he has not yet started construction. "To be honest, I’m not placing much hope in the Israel election," he admitted. "But if Netanyahu loses, the outcome could be slightly better for us. It might encourage me to carry out what I have been planning." Mr. Abu Al Qumsan wishes for his family to return to the neighborhood where his children were born and where he grew up. However, with scarce resources and an uncertain political future for Gaza, even building a temporary shelter feels like a risk. Political analyst Emad Omar noted that many Palestinians perceive this election as significant due to the profound influence Israeli policy exerts on nearly every aspect of their social and economic lives. A victory for Mr. Netanyahu would intensify fears that his right-wing coalition's policies and military approach would persist, according to Mr. Omar. Conversely, if he fails to form a government, Palestinians might anticipate increased engagement with the Palestinian Authority and progress on Gaza's recovery and reconstruction. However, a change in leadership does not guarantee a fundamental shift in Israeli policy toward Gaza. Mr. Eisenkot, who previously served in Mr. Netanyahu's war cabinet before resigning in 2024 over strategic disagreements, has generally supported Israeli military actions while criticizing the government's war management. Mr. Abu Wadi also conceded that Mr. Netanyahu's successor might not offer a substantially different future for Palestinians. "It’s true that whoever comes next may not be any better," he said. "But people are eager, at the very least, to see the departure of those whose names have become associated with the war." Polls indicate Mr. Netanyahu faces a significant challenge, but the uncertainty surrounding potential coalitions makes the outcome difficult to predict. Few analysts discount Mr. Netanyahu's chances, given his long tenure as leader of Israel. Concerns also exist in Gaza regarding potential events leading up to election day. Mr. Omar highlighted Palestinian worries that a new military escalation could influence the election campaign. "No one can predict what Netanyahu is thinking," he stated. "There is concern that he may initiate a major event before the vote in an attempt to change the political landscape or shift opinion polls in his favour."