US Shifting Middle East Strategy: Envoy Barrack Signals End to 'Security-for-Oil' Deal

Doha, Qatar — The United States is pivoting away from its long-standing security-for-oil arrangement in the Middle East and no longer aims to exert dominance over the region, according to senior US diplomat Tom Barrack. Speaking at the Global Security Forum in Doha on Tuesday, Barrack clarified that the US is not abandoning the Middle East but is instead recalibrating its role after years of attempting to influence governments across the area. "The US no longer wants to own," stated Barrack, who also serves as the US Ambassador to Turkiye and Special Envoy for Syria. "The bargain is not to control, but to not leave. We’re not leaving." Barrack recognized a growing awareness among regional nations regarding the limitations of American involvement. "Everybody is saying: OK, I can’t rely on America to solve all my problems," he observed. He also questioned the efficacy of past interventions, noting that the US had been involved in 23 regime changes throughout the broader Middle East. "Every time we try and intervene, change the person or the regime, it seems to have been a mistake," he commented.

These remarks coincide with ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran aimed at concluding the US-Israeli war on Iran, which has destabilized the region and disrupted global energy supplies. Political analyst Luciano Zaccara characterized Barrack as possibly "the most realistic of Trump’s allies" in his assessment of US engagement in the Middle East. Zaccara told Al Jazeera that Barrack had effectively conceded that regime change, a stated objective of Trump's in the war on Iran, was unlikely to be achieved. Zaccara further suggested that Barrack's mention of Middle East regime changes was an admission "that what the US has been doing in the region has not been working, regardless of which administration it was." According to Zaccara, Barrack stopped just short of proposing that Trump should withdraw from "the maximalist demands" he had imposed on Iran.

US-Iran negotiations ongoing

Qatar confirmed that negotiations between Tehran and Washington are continuing, despite escalating concerns about renewed conflict. Majed al-Ansari, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, speaking separately at the Global Security Forum, stated that mediators are actively exchanging messages between the involved parties, with regional partners contributing to efforts to broker a deal. "We are working between the parties, continuing our job as mediator with our partners and others in the region," he said. Al-Ansari advised against interpreting the lack of public updates on the negotiations as a sign of stagnation, noting, "The fact that we’re not hearing about it is a good sign that we’re doing our job properly." These diplomatic endeavors are occurring while Iran's seven-day proposal to end the war remains under consideration by the US. The plan includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and resuming nuclear negotiations in exchange for US concessions, such as lifting the naval blockade on Iranian ports and easing economic sanctions on Tehran.

Analyst Negar Mortazavi indicated that while the diplomatic channel remains open, negotiations are stalled over the specific terms and sequence of any agreement. "Tehran wants to end the war, but it is not prepared to surrender under military or economic pressure," she informed Al Jazeera on the sidelines of the forum in Doha. The Strait of Hormuz continues to be a critical flashpoint, with attacks on commercial shipping heightening concerns for global energy supplies. Prior to the US-Israeli war on Iran, one-fifth of the world's oil and gas passed through the strait. Mortazavi posited that the current escalation is part of Tehran's strategy to maintain leverage against Washington, despite its military limitations. "Iran’s leverage has diminished but has not disappeared," she stated. "Moving tankers is not the same as restoring safe, predictable and normal maritime traffic." Mortazavi believes Tehran aims to increase the economic and political costs of the war for Trump, while also signaling to future US administrations that military action against Iran carries significant consequences. However, she cautioned that continued escalation poses substantial risks to Iran and the wider region. "Ultimately, neither military escalation nor economic pressure is likely to produce Iranian capitulation," she warned.

Fighting in Yemen

Qatar's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson also reiterated Doha's support for Riyadh in its conflict with Yemen’s Houthi armed group, affirming support for Saudi Arabia in "defending their sovereignty against this attack." Fighting escalated in September after the Houthis captured territories along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the port city of Mocha. In response, forces aligned with Yemen’s internationally recognized government launched an offensive, named “Dawn of Yemen,” on October 4, supported by Saudi airstrikes. The Houthis have retaliated with missile and drone attacks targeting Saudi airports, oil facilities, and military installations. Strikes on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport earlier this month resulted in at least 14 fatalities and hundreds of injuries.