Israeli Election Looms: Polls Indicate Tight Race, Potential Stalemate

With just one week remaining until Israelis cast their ballots in what is being described as a pivotal election, opinion polls suggest a continued stalemate. For months, the polls have shown neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's bloc nor his primary challenger Gadi Eisenkot's bloc nearing a majority, a situation that has left Israeli voters bracing for uncertainty. This polling deadlock, set against a backdrop of heightened regional tensions and animosity, is fueling concerns of a tumultuous week ahead.

The average of the three most recent surveys from mainstream Israeli pollsters places Mr. Eisenkot slightly ahead with 52 seats, just one seat more than Mr. Netanyahu. This leaves 17 seats undecided, intensifying speculation that the formation of the next government will hinge on protracted coalition negotiations, potentially lasting months. History shows that if no coalition agreement is reached, Israel could face another election, a scenario that has occurred multiple times in its recent past. Nevertheless, the outcome of this election could still prove decisive.

It is important to note that opinion polls are not infallible, and not all surveys point to a stalemate. A smaller number of polls from less mainstream sources, particularly those published by right-wing news channels, indicate a more favorable position for Mr. Netanyahu's bloc. Channel 14, for instance, forecasted a one-seat majority in a poll released on Sunday, although it also noted a gradual decrease in support for the coalition in recent weeks.

Many voters are acknowledging Mr. Netanyahu's considerable political acumen, including his demonstrated ability to forge unlikely coalitions and undermine rivals. Adding to the uncertainty, Israel's military is on high alert amid fears of renewed conflict with Iran, potentially before the election even takes place. This volatile situation could inadvertently benefit Mr. Netanyahu. The unexpected endorsement from US President Donald Trump on Sunday might also bolster the incumbent's image as a statesman among some voters.

For the mainstream opposition bloc, a clear path to victory involves uniting with Israel's Arab parties. However, several opposition parties, including Mr. Eisenkot's, have stated they will not form a government with parties representing the Palestinian citizens of Israel, who constitute approximately 20 percent of the population. With polls indicating a significant rise in turnout among these citizens, their influence could become too substantial to disregard. Should Mr. Eisenkot manage to include them in his coalition, or even secure their support from outside, it could provoke a strong backlash from the far-right, potentially leading to him being labeled a traitor and causing some current coalition partners to withdraw.