Macron Courts Gulf Allies for Energy and Security Amidst Domestic Unrest and Shifting Global Alliances

French President Emmanuel Macron has arrived in Bahrain as part of a broader tour of the Gulf region, a visit occurring while France grapples with significant domestic protests. Macron's objective is to bolster defense ties and secure vital oil and gas supplies, particularly in light of disruptions to global fuel shipments stemming from the US-Israel war on Iran. This trip follows earlier stops in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), with Qatar being the next destination on his three-day itinerary.

During the initial day of Macron’s tour, France and Kuwait formalized eight agreements and cooperation documents spanning defense, artificial intelligence, and investment. Subsequently, Macron met with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Abu Dhabi. Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to enhancing cooperation in energy, advanced technology, and artificial intelligence (AI). The French Foreign Ministry highlighted the UAE as France's largest trading partner in the Gulf, with bilateral trade reaching 10.8 billion euros ($12.1 billion) in 2025. Data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) indicates that France was the second-largest supplier of arms and defense imports to the UAE in 2025, accounting for 18 percent, trailing only the United States at 42 percent.

However, the significance of these engagements extends beyond mere trade. Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King’s College London’s School of Security Studies, views Macron’s regional visit as indicative of a substantial geopolitical shift. "We are witnessing the gradual emergence of a post-American Middle East in which Washington remains militarily powerful but increasingly struggles to exercise the political leadership it once enjoyed," Krieg explained. "Europe and the Gulf now face a remarkably similar strategic challenge. Both have become excessively dependent on American security decisions, and both are discovering that this dependence carries substantial economic and political costs."

An Urgent Need for Energy

A primary concern for Macron is addressing the internal strife within France. The nation has been experiencing widespread protests and violence related to a proposed government budget aimed at achieving significant public spending cuts. Citizens, angered by the deteriorating state of French schools and planned public sector pay freezes, have taken to the streets in increasingly volatile demonstrations, leading authorities to impose curfews in several cities. Over half a million people participated in nationwide protests on Saturday, demanding improvements in education infrastructure and government action on the cost-of-living crisis. The protests have resulted in over 2,500 arrests, with some demonstrations escalating to looting and arson.

The surge in energy prices across Europe, largely attributed to the Iran war, has exacerbated public discontent in France. Disruptions to the supply of refined oil products, such as petrol and diesel, caused by conflict in the Strait of Hormuz, have led to shortages at up to 20 percent of French petrol stations at various times since the conflict began. Macron’s visit, accompanied by executives from TotalEnergies and Engie, occurs as oil prices remain above $100 a barrel. France's immediate need is for new energy suppliers, which appear to have been secured. The UAE has committed to supplying France with 100,000 tonnes of diesel monthly for an unspecified period. Bahrain has agreed to similar terms, providing 100,000 tonnes of diesel per month, while Saudi Arabia will supply 95,000 tonnes in October and November via TotalEnergies.

Cooperating on Gulf Defence

Beyond securing energy imports, France aims to increase its own exports, particularly defense equipment, to the Gulf region, especially as the country faces record national debt levels not seen since the immediate post-World War II era. France has already enhanced its military partnership with Saudi Arabia, which is engaged in conflict with the Iran-backed Houthi group from Yemen. Last month, Macron announced France's intention to deploy troops and defense systems to Saudi Arabia to aid in the protection of the Red Sea port of Yanbu, a critical energy transport hub. Saudi oil installations and airports have been targeted by Houthi attacks. In late September, Macron stated France would deploy "military means" to Saudi Arabia to safeguard the Yanbu oil terminal. The Saudi East-West Pipeline, vital for oil exports while the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, has also faced attacks. French newspaper Le Monde described this move as a "geopolitical shift," noting a departure from previous "discreet, ambiguous" defense cooperation. French Foreign Ministry spokesperson Pascal Confavreux confirmed that "operational elements" for defending Saudi oil facilities have been deployed, though specifics remain undisclosed. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot met with his Saudi counterpart, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud, to discuss bilateral relations and regional developments, reaffirming France's solidarity amid Houthi attacks.

Krieg suggests that France offers Gulf states a valuable asset: military capabilities not entirely reliant on the US. "France can offer defence industrial cooperation, technology transfers, joint production, training and greater operational autonomy," he stated. "For countries such as the UAE and Qatar, this means progressively reducing their dependence on American weapons systems, spare parts, intelligence and political permissions."

Involved – But Not Too Involved

Krieg cautioned that France faces a significant challenge in determining the extent of its involvement, as increased engagement could potentially draw the nation into the ongoing conflict. "Consider the protection of Saudi energy infrastructure against Houthi attacks," he noted. "French air defence systems intercepting missiles would directly undermine the Houthis’ military strategy. If French forces are subsequently targeted, Paris could face pressure to retaliate. What begins as a defensive deployment could gradually become an operational commitment with much wider implications." He added that similar risks apply to naval deployments around the Strait of Hormuz, where "escalation in one theatre can rapidly affect another." France's relations with Iran have already been strained due to diplomatic expulsions and rhetoric. In July and August, France condemned Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to the detention and expulsion of French Embassy staff from Tehran, followed by France expelling two Iranian diplomats in retaliation.

A New Regional Security Architecture

Speaking at the Global Security Forum in Doha, Qatar, US Envoy Tom Barrack indicated that Washington is shifting away from its traditional security-for-oil relationship with the Middle East, stating, "The US no longer wants to own... The bargain is not to control, but to not leave. We’re not leaving." Barrack acknowledged that regional partners are increasingly recognizing the limitations of US involvement following Iranian strikes on their infrastructure. Defense partnerships within the Middle East have strengthened, exemplified by the trilateral security pact signed by Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and Pakistan in August. However, this evolving landscape may present opportunities for external actors like France to play a more significant role. Krieg believes Gulf states do not expect France to replace the US's unmatched military and intelligence infrastructure. Instead, they seek a "diversified network of security partnerships." He added, "France is particularly attractive because it possesses genuine expeditionary capabilities and has demonstrated a willingness to defend Gulf partners without joining Washington’s offensive campaign against Iran. Its military presence has consequently acquired greater political significance."