US Midterms: Why They're Crucial for Trump's Legacy and Control of Congress

The United States midterm elections on November 3 are a focal point of national and international attention, carrying significant weight. These elections will determine which political party controls the US Congress, thereby shaping the trajectory of Donald Trump’s final two years in office. Additionally, key state and local positions will be decided. However, even substantial victories in the midterms might not be enough to drastically alter the balance of power in Washington, DC. To clarify the implications of this year’s midterm election and potential future developments, Al Jazeera presents this straightforward guide. Here’s an explanation of why the US midterms are significant at the federal level.

The Battle for the US House of Representatives and US Senate

Midterm elections occur midway through a president’s term, meaning the executive office itself is not on the ballot. The primary contest is for control of Congress, which comprises two chambers: the House of Representatives and the Senate. Since members of the House serve two-year terms, all 435 seats are up for election on November 3. Many of these races are largely predetermined, with clear frontrunners. Consequently, only approximately 50 races are expected to decide the majority in the House. Current projections from most reputable election forecasters suggest that Democrats are poised to win control of the House, potentially by as many as 15 seats.

The Democrats face a more challenging path to securing a majority in the Senate, which has 100 seats. Due to senators serving staggered six-year terms, only 35 seats are up for election, with about a dozen considered competitive. Nevertheless, the Democrats' prospects of winning the Senate have improved as the number of competitive races has increased. Left-leaning candidates have made gains in traditionally Republican states like Texas and Kansas, creating more opportunities for the Democratic Party to potentially achieve a Senate majority this election cycle. Given that the US vice president casts tie-breaking votes in the Senate, Democrats would need 51 seats to control the chamber.

What Party Control Entails

Congress is responsible for passing laws and approving federal budgets. However, even if a single party secures a majority in both chambers, it may not have complete control over the nation’s legislative agenda. While laws can pass the House with a simple majority, they typically require a supermajority of 60 votes in the Senate to overcome the filibuster, a procedural tactic that allows a minority to indefinitely delay legislation. Therefore, unless a party wins over 60 seats in the Senate, most legislation will still necessitate some degree of bipartisan support to pass. Furthermore, even if a bill passes both chambers, the president retains the power to veto it. Overriding a presidential veto requires a two-thirds supermajority in both the House and the Senate, a feat that is exceptionally rare. The last instance of this occurred in January 2021, during Donald Trump’s first term, after he had lost the 2020 election and saw his support among Republican lawmakers wane when he attempted to veto a defense spending bill. Despite this, there are instances where bipartisan consensus has overridden presidential objections. For example, a bill aimed at increasing housing supply passed both the House and Senate with veto-proof majorities earlier this year, despite Trump’s stated opposition.

Scenario: Republicans Maintain Control of Congress

Republicans currently hold majorities in both chambers of Congress, with 53 seats in the Senate and 218 in the House. With Donald Trump in the White House, this has resulted in a governmental "trifecta" for the party over the past two years, consolidating power. Republican majorities in Congress have facilitated Trump’s passage of key legislation, including increased funding for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and reductions in certain forms of publicly funded healthcare as part of a comprehensive 2025 tax bill. However, these Republican numbers have not been sufficient to enact Trump’s entire legislative agenda. Notably, his signature federal voter identification law, the "SAVE America Act," has been stalled due to Democratic opposition. There have also been instances where Republicans have diverged from Trump, particularly on the issue of tariffs. A few Republican lawmakers have also voted to assert congressional authority over the US-Israel war with Iran. If the Republican Party retains control of both the House and Senate in the November elections, its majorities could continue to advance Trump’s legislative agenda. However, a significant consideration is that lawmakers will be closely monitoring voter sentiment as the 2028 elections approach. With Trump ineligible to seek a third term, some Republicans might feel more emboldened to publicly oppose the outgoing president in the next two years to enhance their own electoral prospects. Should Republicans maintain control of the Senate but lose the House, they would still be able to assist Trump in confirming his nominees for critical federal positions. Hundreds of federal roles, including those in the judiciary and the Supreme Court, require Senate approval by a simple majority.

Scenario: Democrats Take Control

The party controlling Congress, with few exceptions, has the power to decide which legislation is brought to a vote and when. For Democrats, the most significant consequence of winning a majority in one or both chambers would be the ability to obstruct Trump’s legislative agenda over the next two years. Analysts anticipate that a Democrat-led Congress would primarily adopt a defensive posture, rejecting Trump’s proposals. However, advancing their own legislative agenda and passing their own laws would be considerably more challenging, even with a majority in both chambers. Democrat-led legislation would still be subject to Trump’s veto power. Nevertheless, holding majorities would empower Democratic members to incorporate policy priorities into essential "must-pass" funding legislation. The threat of a government shutdown could compel Republicans to approve budget bills, even if they disagree with certain provisions. Democrats could also use their platform to bring specific topics to a vote, forcing congressional Republicans to either oppose popular policies or publicly declare their stance on contentious issues. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has outlined a 100-day plan should Democrats gain control of the House. Key priorities include votes on Trump-backed healthcare funding cuts, asserting congressional authority over the US-Israel war with Iran, and reversing Trump’s tariff program. These issues have divided the Republican base and would present difficult choices for lawmakers already positioning themselves for the 2028 elections.

Potential Impeachment of Trump by Democrats

As Trump campaigns for Republicans leading up to the November vote, he has repeatedly voiced concerns that Democratic control of Congress could lead to his third impeachment. Trump was impeached twice during his first term. "If we don’t win, they’ll end up impeaching me," he stated at a rally in Durant, Oklahoma, in early October. If Democrats gain control of the House or Senate, they would assume leadership of numerous committees. These committees possess subpoena power, enabling them to launch investigations into various matters. Some Democrats have indicated that investigating allegations of corruption within the Trump family will be a primary focus. House lawmakers can introduce articles of impeachment and vote to impeach federal officials, including the president, with a simple majority. However, the Senate would require a two-thirds majority vote to convict and remove an official from office. Perhaps more crucially, if Democrats win control of the Senate, they would be able to block the confirmation of Trump appointees to key positions during his final two years in office.

Impact on the War with Iran and the Economy

A surge in Democratic support would likely signal dissatisfaction with the Trump administration, but significant, immediate changes on many issues defining the election season are unlikely. For instance, if Democrats secure majorities in both chambers of Congress, they could leverage their position to address affordability concerns, focusing on issues such as housing, healthcare, and the cost of living. However, their ability to immediately alter the numerous factors contributing to high prices for gasoline and groceries would be limited. Any progress in these areas would likely be hard-won, gradual, and incremental. The same applies to the US-Israel war with Iran. The US Constitution grants Congress the sole authority to declare war, a power not exercised since World War II. Presidents have historically invoked various legal justifications to bypass this requirement. The Trump administration, for example, argued that the US-Israel war with Iran did not necessitate congressional authorization, citing the president's duty to protect American citizens. Trump has also contended that the war has experienced intermittent phases, each time resetting the 60-day window for congressional approval. To reassert congressional authority over declarations of war, Democrats could pass a legally binding "war powers resolution" to constrain Trump, but this would require a two-thirds majority to override a presidential veto. Experts suggest that even if such a resolution were to overcome a veto, the response of the US judiciary to potential defiance by Trump remains uncertain. Nevertheless, Democrats could utilize their control of Congress to attempt to block funding for the war.