Strait of Hormuz Data Reveals Whether Ships Fear Iran or the US More

US President Donald Trump has insisted that his military remains in control of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, suggesting that the US might even seek to take charge of the territory. On Tuesday, he claimed that the strait was open for vessels to pass through, despite Iranian insistence that the waterway was closed for all ships without Tehran's approval, and despite a US naval blockade targeting all Iran-linked ships. Simultaneously, Trump has threatened to bomb Oman, a US ally situated across the strait from Iran, in an apparent bid to dissuade Muscat from striking any deal with Tehran to jointly manage the waterway. Amid competing claims, actual traffic data offers vital clues regarding who truly controls the Strait of Hormuz.

Before the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz was considered a single waterway without strict distinctions between Iranian and Omani routes, with navigation determined by port calls, safety, and charter terms rather than fear of military consequences. However, ongoing tensions have fractured the waterway into two main routes. Tehran insists on the northern Iranian route, hugging the coast near Larak Island and Qeshm Island and feeding directly into Iranian ports. Washington insists on the southern Omani route, closer to Oman and used by commercial carriers under US naval protection.

Data from maritime intelligence firm Kpler indicates that between August 1 and August 19, 112 vessels carrying crude, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and liquefied natural gas (LNG) passed through the strait. Of those tankers, 21 openly used the Iranian route, while only two formally used the Omani route. The remaining 89 vessels—accounting for over 80 percent of total oil and gas traffic—went dark or used unclassified routes by turning off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders, making their exact paths difficult to determine, according to Mohamed Rafik Halitim of Kpler.

Beyond energy carriers, 236 total ships transited through Hormuz during the same period, including vessels carrying dry cargo and chemicals. Of these, 83 openly used the Iranian route, three used the Omani route, and two used the central pre-war route. A significant majority of 148 ships went dark or utilized unknown routes.

Vessels frequently switch off their transponders to avoid digital identifiers used by military forces to target ships violating navigation rules. Neil Quilliam of Chatham House noted that operators weigh commercial and security benefits against maritime safety risks. Incidents include an August 8 missile attack on an Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) tanker, which reported 15 vessel attacks since the war began, as well as US military strikes on tankers and cargo vessels attempting to break blockades, such as the Panama-flagged Vela Nova.

Experts also attribute dark routing to ship-to-ship cargo transfers conducted mid-route. Energy researcher Marc Ayoub explained that Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait utilize the Omani route with disabled tracking for clandestine shipments, while some Iranian vessels use similar methods to evade sanctions and the US blockade.

Despite the inability to fully track every vessel, the available data highlights which power ships are more willing to defy. Despite a powerful US naval blockade, a fifth of all energy carriers and 35 percent of all vessels openly chose the Iranian route, defying Trump's threats. By contrast, very few ships publicly utilized non-Iranian routes, suggesting that the fear of offending Tehran outweighs the fear of Trump's threats.

Experts like Ayoub and Quilliam maintain that Iran retains significant capacity to disrupt maritime traffic and influence shipping flows in the Strait of Hormuz, though alternative logistics and regional security measures mean its control is not absolute. As tensions continue, Brent crude prices have reacted significantly to the ongoing crisis, highlighting the critical economic importance of the waterway.