Tigray Resumes Daily Life Amidst Lingering Fears of Escalating Conflict

Residents in Mekelle, the capital of Ethiopia's Tigray region, are cautiously resuming daily activities as shops reopen and banks restart services. However, this fragile return to normalcy is overshadowed by renewed uncertainty as recent fighting raises fears of derailing the region's recovery from the devastating 2020-2022 war. Ethiopian federal forces and allied fighters retook Mekelle on October 4, intensifying concerns about the future for a region still grappling with the aftermath of the conflict between federal forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

The resurgence of fighting has cast a shadow over jobs, education, and security for residents. While businesses and financial services are gradually becoming operational, many households are struggling to afford basic necessities. Public employees face delayed salaries, making it difficult to cover essential expenses like food and rent, and years of conflict have depleted family savings. "Things may be reopening, but that does not mean our problems are over. We still have expenses every day, and without our salaries, it is difficult to know how we will manage," stated Gebregziabher, a public servant in Mekelle.

The funding crisis extends to the public sector, with Tigray’s interim administration reporting in March that it could no longer cover monthly salaries for approximately 137,000 civil servants due to non-arrival of expected federal budget transfers. A significant funding shortfall of 8.5 billion birr (approximately $52,000) was reported in April by the regional finance bureau, impacting salary payments and development projects. For many, the reopening of businesses offers only a partial reprieve, as managing everyday expenses remains a challenge without reliable incomes and enhanced security.

Students in Tigray are particularly anxious, fearing further disruptions to their education. Many have already lost valuable study time due to the previous war and are concerned about falling further behind. Shewit, a grade 10 student in Adigrat, expressed his worries about his future due to the uncertainty surrounding classes and security. "I have already lost so much time because of the war. I am afraid that if our education is disrupted again, I will lose another year and fall further behind," he said. Some university students have relocated to Addis Ababa, seeking transfers to other public universities. The Ministry of Education has facilitated temporary placements for students from Tigray at universities nationwide, with over 5,000 applications received by mid-September. Abel, a third-year student from Axum University, traveled to Addis Ababa to pursue a transfer, stating, "I didn’t want to leave, but I also can’t keep putting my education on hold. I came to Addis to see if I can transfer to another university and continue my studies. I just want to finish what I started." For these students, the uncertainty not only means interrupted classes but also threatens to delay graduation and complicate their path to employment.

Near the Eritrean border, heightened military movements and conflicting reports on troop deployments have fueled fears of the conflict expanding beyond Tigray. Reports from The Associated Press and ACLED indicated potential Eritrean troop incursions into Adigrat and Zalambessa. Reuters also reported Ethiopian government forces advancing into Zalambessa, with the presence of Eritrean or Tigrayan opposition forces remaining unclear, highlighting the difficulty in establishing control amid shifting fighting. These developments occur amidst deteriorating relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara. Ethiopia's foreign minister accused Eritrea of sending troops into Ethiopian territory, appealing to the UN Security Council, while Eritrea denied the accusations and called for action against Ethiopia. This has raised concerns about a potential direct confrontation between the two neighbors, adding a regional dimension to the renewed conflict, especially given their previous alliance against the TPLF in the 2020-2022 war.

In response to the federal forces' takeover of Mekelle and other towns, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced a six-month caretaker administration for Tigray on October 16. This administration is tasked with restoring public services, assisting displaced individuals, and preparing for elections. While the federal government aims to restore stability, the TPLF opposes the federal advance, leaving the effectiveness of the new administration uncertain. Residents' immediate concerns remain focused on salary payments, the functionality of schools and health facilities, and the safe return of displaced families. Gebrehiwot, a resident of Zalambessa, expressed the community's anxiety, stating, "People are worried because we know what war means for this area. We have already suffered enough, and nobody wants to see things reach that point again."