Elections Loom: How US and Israeli Votes Could Shape the Conflict with Iran

As both the United States and Israel gear up for significant elections, new military actions against Iran are being hinted at by both nations. The Israeli general election scheduled for October 27 and the US midterm elections on November 3 represent crucial tests of public opinion for the leaders of both countries since the conflict began in February. In Israel, current polling suggests a potential stalemate, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his primary opponent Gadi Eisenkot appearing to secure a clear majority. However, this electoral uncertainty would not preclude Mr. Netanyahu from ordering strikes while coalition negotiations are underway.

In the US, President Donald Trump constitutionally possesses considerable latitude in his decision-making. Nevertheless, a significant defeat in the midterms could intensify domestic opposition to the ongoing war. Here's a breakdown of the implications of these elections on the conflict:

Israel: Navigating Political Limbo

Following the election of a new parliament, Israel could face weeks or even months before a stable coalition government is formed. During this period, Mr. Netanyahu would continue to serve as a caretaker Prime Minister, with no formal restrictions on his authority, meaning he could still authorize military operations against Iran. While caretaker governments in some countries do undertake major initiatives, opposition leader Yair Lapid has reportedly stated that actions that "fundamentally change reality" should be avoided. It is worth noting that in August 2022, Mr. Lapid served as caretaker Prime Minister before an election, during which Israel conducted three days of strikes on Gaza.

Speculation also suggests that Mr. Netanyahu might leverage a crisis to establish a wartime unity government, potentially bringing opposition members into his cabinet. Mr. Netanyahu has pledged to uphold his hardline stance if re-elected, a position largely shared by most opposition leaders who also favor confronting Iran and oppose the establishment of a Palestinian state.

United States: Increased Scrutiny on the Horizon

Americans will be electing a new Congress and numerous state governors. Mr. Trump's term extends until 2029, and his authority as Commander-in-Chief is not contingent on congressional majorities, allowing him to initiate new assaults on Iran at any time. Earlier this month, Mr. Trump indicated that the US would refrain from attacking Iran before the midterm elections but did not rule out post-election strikes. However, a Republican defeat could politically constrain his options, especially if high energy prices, potentially exacerbated by further disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf energy exports, contribute to his unpopularity.

A Congress controlled by Democrats could initiate investigations into the war, potentially creating political difficulties for the administration. Key areas such as US military aid to Israel, sanctions against Iran, and Washington's relationships with Gulf nations could all face more intensive examination.