Trump's 'Drain the Swamp' Promise Tested: Epstein Files, Iran War, and Shifting GOP Stance Ahead of Midterms

United States President Donald Trump has consistently positioned himself as a political outsider, vowing to expose elite abuses of power and redirect national focus from foreign conflicts to domestic issues. Slogans like “drain the swamp” and “America first” have resonated strongly, galvanizing a significant base of “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) Republicans. However, midway through his presidency, Trump appears to have deviated from these core tenets, fostering closer ties with the wealthy, hindering investigations into convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein, and initiating conflict with Iran. This apparent shift is reportedly influencing Republican candidates in the upcoming November midterm elections, according to Rina Shah, a geopolitical adviser and strategist, and former senior GOP congressional aide. Shah noted that in closely contested races, some candidates are subtly distancing themselves from Trump's agenda, opting to discuss issues like gas prices, local concerns, or their district-specific priorities, as the Iran war and developments surrounding the Epstein case are already being leveraged in attack ads and impacting poll numbers.

The article delves into whether the Republican Party has indeed moderated its stance on these critical issues.

Which Republicans have broken with Trump over the Epstein files?

During his 2024 presidential campaign, Trump pledged to declassify extensive FBI files pertaining to Epstein and his international network. His prospective cabinet members, including Kash Patel, who is now the head of the FBI, expressed eagerness to uncover the identities of individuals involved, stating it was time to “put on your big boy pants and let us know who the pedophiles are.”

However, shortly after taking office, Trump began to delay the declassification process, drawing criticism from prominent MAGA figures. Trump subsequently characterized the entire matter as a “hoax,” suggesting Republicans were being misled by Democrats into demanding an investigation into Epstein’s network.

Despite the administration's hesitations, Congress ultimately compelled the release of some files, with assistance from a few Republicans who opposed Trump's stance. While the Trump administration has released heavily redacted versions of the files, certain information remains withheld. Consequently, Republican lawmakers who voted for the mandated release have faced repercussions, with three losing their seats. US Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene departed her Georgia seat in January 2026, following public disagreements with Trump over the Epstein files. Nancy Mace, a Republican from South Carolina, failed in her bid for party nomination after Trump withheld his endorsement. Colorado's Lauren Boebert narrowly secured her primary victory after drawing Trump's ire for supporting transparency calls from Thomas Massie, another Republican committed to revealing the contents of the files. Massie, from Kentucky, also experienced Trump's disapproval, which likely affected his primary outcome.

No more foreign wars?

Trump had long advocated for reducing US military involvement abroad, diverging from the interventionist policies of previous Republican presidents. Now, he and his party are facing scrutiny over the US-Israel war against Iran, a conflict that influential MAGA figures like commentator Tucker Carlson have criticized as being “Israel’s war” and not one for the United States to be involved in.

Among disillusioned MAGA supporters, a narrative has emerged suggesting Trump is using the war as a diversion from the Epstein issue. Massie, the former congressman, encapsulated this sentiment by stating, “Bombing a country on the other side of the globe won’t make the Epstein files go away.”

Trump has attempted to minimize the war's significance, but voters, including those within the Republican Party, perceive it as a breach of his own promises, contributing to a decline in the president's approval ratings. Shah commented, “Seven months into an open-ended campaign with shifting goals, that promise looks different to a lot of his voters.”

Despite public sentiment, few Republicans in Congress have acted upon it. Democrats have made repeated attempts to limit Trump's war on Iran by passing resolutions highlighting his failure to secure congressional approval. In September, only seven Republican House members joined Democrats in passing an anti-war bill. Similar efforts in the Senate have garnered support from only a small number of Republicans.

Trump publicly denounced Republican lawmakers supporting anti-war bills as “unpatriotic” and stated, “They should be ashamed of themselves.” Similar to the Epstein files situation, Trump took action against dissenting Republicans regarding the Iran war, notably backing a challenger to Senator Bill Cassidy, who voted for the anti-war bill, in a Louisiana primary that the senator ultimately lost.

What happened to Trump’s promise to “drain the swamp”?

One of Trump's most compelling campaign promises was to eradicate a “deep state” establishment that he claimed was controlling the country and operating without public accountability on social, fiscal, and foreign policy matters.

In certain respects, Trump did fulfill this promise. An entire federal government division, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), was established, leading to the dismissal of tens of thousands of federal employees and the dismantling of agencies like the US Agency for International Development (USAID). The military also moved away from principles of racial, gender, and economic diversity. Institutions ranging from universities to the Smithsonian Institution faced a campaign targeting what was described as an unqualified, diversity-obsessed elite class.

However, lobbying groups, including those representing foreign governments, have been granted considerable latitude. Furthermore, ethics regulations and oversight bodies designed to combat political corruption have been weakened, according to Shah, the Republican strategist. At his presidential inauguration, Trump was notably surrounded by some of the world's wealthiest individuals, several of whom have since taken on roles within his administration.