Ultra-Orthodox Conscription Sparks Fierce Debate in Israel's Election Campaign

As Israel grapples with multiple crises, including security concerns following the October 7 Hamas-led attack and the rising cost of living, the upcoming October 27 election is increasingly dominated by a contentious issue: the military conscription of ultra-Orthodox Jewish men. An estimated 80,000 ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) men aged 18-24 currently avoid military service, a number that gains significance amid reports of staff shortages in the Israeli army.

For their political representatives in the Knesset, the Haredi Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) parties, this exemption is crucial for preserving Israel's character through Torah study and prayer. However, critics view them as draft dodgers who refuse to contribute to Israel's ongoing conflicts, particularly after the October 7 attacks. This opposition includes the Zionist opposition bloc, currently in a close race with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud Party and its far-right coalition.

The issue became politically explosive in May when Haredi anger over the jailing of draft evaders led to street protests, following a 2024 Supreme Court ruling mandating the drafting of ultra-Orthodox men. This ruling threatened Netanyahu's government, which relies on the support of Haredi parties in exchange for softening conscription measures. When Netanyahu stated he lacked the votes to pass an exemption bill, the Haredi parties moved to dissolve the Knesset, weakening the government.

Recently, Netanyahu opposed the arrest of 40 Haredim who evaded the draft after returning from the United States, despite a law intended to halt such arrests. He stated, "We must preserve the world of Torah because it preserved us," and characterized the arrests as an attempt to harm the drafting process. However, the impact of these comments on the broader Israeli public remains uncertain, as the issue presents an opportunity for Netanyahu's opponents and highlights divisions within his own support base. A poll by the Israel Democracy Institute indicated that 72 percent of Israelis favor drafting Haredim.

Incidents, such as a clash between Haredim and Israeli forces seeking to arrest a draft dodger in Modi'in in early October, have drawn strong criticism from Netanyahu's opponents. Former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot, whose Yashar party leads Likud in polls, condemned such actions as normalizing draft evasion and devaluing military service. He framed the election as a choice between "Netanyahu's draft-dodging government, or a government of conscription led by me."

Even within Likud, some lawmakers have voiced concerns that the ultra-Orthodox non-conscription issue could threaten Israel's future. Professor Daniel Bar-Tal of Tel Aviv University described the situation as a paradox, where the demand for equal service unites the secular and Zionist religious public, while the right-wing Haredi stance creates a dilemma for Netanyahu.

Despite public anger and the potential consequences for their political allies, Haredi parties remain steadfast. Shas and UTJ have declared they will not join any coalition that does not pass laws exempting their community from military service, potentially making coalition formation impossible. Pollster Mitchell Barak noted that opposition parties are leveraging this issue, framing the election as a choice between "the draft dodgers versus those who protect and serve."

The upcoming election follows Israel's extensive military operations in Gaza, which began in October 2023, causing widespread destruction and significant casualties. These campaigns, along with regional conflicts, have strained Israel's finances and contributed to public discontent over the high cost of living and increased taxes. Families of reservists face emotional and psychological strain alongside stagnant incomes, with a recent survey showing 42 percent of Israelis experiencing financial worsening since the Gaza war began.

The growing Haredi population, currently 12.5 percent of Israelis (1.26 million), is projected to reach between 20 and 33 percent by 2065. A significant portion of this demographic refuses to work or serve in the army, prioritizing Torah study. Shmuel Rosner of the Jewish People Policy Institute highlighted the increasing burden of military service on the general population as the Haredi sector expands, with many Israelis feeling the Haredi community contributes little financially while relying heavily on the state.