Ukraine's Reliance on US Aid: Can Kyiv Survive Without Washington's Support?

The relationship between Ukraine and the United States has faced significant turbulence, marked by US President Donald Trump's criticism of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky regarding peace negotiations and Kyiv's accusations of withheld military aid. Trump's envoy engaged in peace talks with Norway and Russia, though these efforts yielded only a plan for trilateral discussions. Meanwhile, ongoing Russian attacks and Ukraine's concerns about wavering US support have intensified. This is not the first instance of friction; Trump's second term began with a halt in aid to Ukraine's war effort, prompting Europe to increase its financial contributions and Ukraine to rapidly develop its own defense industry. The article examines the extent of Ukraine's current dependence on US support and its capacity to continue fighting without it.

Experts identify three primary areas where the US can exert pressure on Kyiv to achieve a resolution to the conflict initiated by Russia: economic, military, and political. Economically, US aid has already been curtailed. The Trump administration ceased new aid packages for Ukraine in early 2025. Prior to this, the US had provided at least $131.5 billion in total aid, making it the largest single donor since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. While some arms from American manufacturers purchased during the Biden administration continue to reach Ukraine, many contracts are complete. European Union countries and institutions collectively now surpass the US in total donations, contributing at least $228.5 billion since 2022, as per Kiel Institute data. Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden have been the largest military aid providers among EU states, with the United Kingdom and Norway also making significant contributions. A substantial portion of these donations involves NATO allies purchasing US-made weaponry for transfer to Ukraine, a process requiring Pentagon authorization, thus providing the US administration with another leverage point. President Zelensky highlighted Ukraine's critical deficit in US-made Patriot interceptors, stating, "The delivery of interceptors to protect us against Russian ballistic missiles is still delayed. We are waiting for interceptors that were already agreed on, but they are still not coming." Ukraine recently exhausted its supply of Patriot interceptors, a key defense against ballistic missiles, leaving it more vulnerable to Russian assaults. The absence of intercepted ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv indicates critically low or depleted Patriot stocks. Zelensky emphasized Ukraine's immediate needs: "Not to lift sanctions from Putin … (and) to give us better missiles." Analysts suggest that given the benefits to American defense companies, any prolonged slowdown or blockage of these purchases is unlikely.

Militarily, despite the reduction in financial aid, Ukraine remains heavily reliant on US intelligence and technology. Systems such as the Patriot interceptors, the military-grade Starshield satellite internet (a variant of Elon Musk's Starlink), and advanced missile-warning technology are unique to the US and lack European equivalents. Max Bergmann of the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that Europe has not developed these systems because they relied on US provision. He warned that the US's unreliability could have severe consequences for Ukraine, including significant economic damage and loss of civilian life, though he doubted it would break Ukraine's resolve to fight. President Zelensky reported that Ukraine had not received US intelligence warnings for ballistic strikes on multiple occasions, leading to attacks without air raid sirens and increased civilian casualties. The US State Department and Trump have denied restricting intelligence sharing, and Zelensky confirmed that intelligence sharing with the US had resumed. Ukraine's defense ministry also reported the restoration of full Starshield access, though the impact on national speeds remained unclear. Reports from the Donetsk region indicated continued speed limitations, hindering Ukrainian drone operations and military activities. Trump and his officials have denied ordering throttling of Starshield usage, while Elon Musk stated that any limitations are determined by the US military and the President. Musk accused Ukraine's military of violating Starlink's terms of service by using it for offensive drone strikes, a practice he claimed was stopped. He stressed Starshield's critical role in Ukraine's defense, asserting that its cessation would lead to an immediate collapse of the Ukrainian front line. Zelensky's advisor disputed Musk's claims, citing speed restrictions and unavailability over Russian territory as preventing the use of commercial Starlink for long-range strikes. Experts believe that disruptions to US-backed systems would severely impact Ukraine in the short term, potentially prompting European allies to invest more in developing their own capabilities long-term. Bergmann criticized the US actions, stating that Ukraine is paying for these services and that the US's behavior undermines its reliability as a technology and defense supplier.

Politically, the US-Ukraine discord carries significant geopolitical implications, potentially benefiting Russia's war effort. This friction follows several controversial US decisions, including waiving new sanctions on Russia and agreeing to allow Russian diesel exports. Analysts suggest that these actions could embolden Russia, fostering hope that European resolve might eventually falter. Natia Seskuria of RUSI believes that the strain on Europe caused by US pressure on Ukraine and the relaxation of sanctions provides Russia with encouragement. John Lough of the New Eurasian Strategies Centre echoed this sentiment, noting that Russia likely views the current situation favorably, with Trump's actions pressuring Ukraine and impacting sanctions. He highlighted the divergence between European and US policies. Trump linked the waiving of sanctions to the release of American Stephen Hubbard, despite earlier claims of no concessions. While some tensions related to diesel prices and Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries might ease after US midterms, Lough argued that high gas prices and the unpopularity of the Iran war would persist throughout Trump's presidency, making Ukraine an easy target for deflecting responsibility. CNN's Becky Pinnington contributed to this report.