Egypt's Hesitation: Echoes of Past Wars Shape Stance on Yemen Conflict

The specter of past military engagements in Yemen looms large as Egypt contemplates its involvement in the current conflict. In 1962, Egyptian forces numbering in the thousands were deployed to support the Yemeni government against rebels, backing republican forces in North Yemen against royalists. This intervention was a response to a revolution that overthrew the theocratic monarch, Zaidi Imam Mohammad al-Badr, aligning with the Arab nationalist ideology championed by Egypt's President Gamal Abdel Nasser. Although the republican side eventually prevailed against the Saudi-backed royalists, Egyptian forces withdrew following their defeat in the 1967 war against Israel and significant losses sustained in Yemen.

Recent suggestions of a new Egyptian military intervention, following remarks by President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, have resurrected these historical memories. In response to criticism regarding direct military involvement, el-Sisi clarified that any deployment would be defensive, aimed at protecting Saudi Arabia, and would not involve aggression against Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Further underscoring this cautious approach, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty called for a political resolution to the conflict.

The current situation has intensified following increased Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, including a strike on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh that resulted in casualties, one of whom was Egyptian. This has led Saudi Arabia to seek support from its allies, including Egypt. Several nations, such as Turkiye, Pakistan, France, and the United Kingdom, have already committed or indicated willingness to provide defensive forces to Saudi Arabia.

Egypt's National Defence Council declared on October 18 its readiness to offer "all necessary and possible support to Saudi Arabia to defend its safety and stability." However, Cairo has consistently emphasized that its involvement would not entail direct attacks on the Houthis. Any deployment outside Egypt's borders, even for defensive missions, requires parliamentary approval, with a vote scheduled after a delay for deliberation.

Egypt's apprehension regarding military involvement in Yemen stems from a desire to avoid foreign entanglements and potential retaliation from the Houthis or Iran. The Houthis have demonstrated the capacity for precise attacks on vital targets within Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, any disruption to Red Sea shipping, a critical artery for Egypt's economy through the Suez Canal, would have severe economic repercussions, potentially leading to significant losses in transit fees. President el-Sisi has noted that regional instability has already cost Egypt $20 billion in potential revenues.

Disruptions to energy supplies via the Bab al-Mandeb strait, controlled by the Houthis, could also lead to increased oil prices, impacting net consumers like Egypt. The historical context is also a significant factor. Despite the eventual success of the 1960s intervention in Yemen, the campaign was arduous, resulting in thousands of Egyptian casualties. This experience is often cited as a contributing factor to the Egyptian military's unpreparedness for the 1967 war with Israel. As Ahmad Dahshan, editor-in-chief of the Center of Arabic Eurasian Studies, noted, there is a prevailing sentiment of reluctance to repeat the past, where Egyptian troops were killed in Yemen, this time in support of Saudi Arabia.

Potential Egyptian support for Saudi Arabia could include operating air defense systems, intercepting missiles and drones, or guarding sensitive sites. However, even these defensive roles carry risks of casualties, as Houthi attacks have targeted strategically important locations. Naval assistance in the Red Sea to protect shipping and reinforcing the Saudi-Yemeni border are also possibilities. Dahshan stated that any deployed troops would be solely for the protection of Saudi territory, potentially including ground troops to defend the Saudi border against Houthi incursions.

Egypt was part of the Saudi-led coalition in 2015 but played a limited role. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have been heavily involved, facing Houthi attacks as a consequence. While Saudi air support has been crucial for Yemeni government forces, some analysts suggest that additional manpower is not the primary need. Mohammed al-Qadhi, a Yemeni political and conflict analyst, believes the Yemeni government requires political and economic support, along with better coordination and logistical aid, rather than more fighters. He also acknowledged Yemen's historical debt to Egypt for its past support of the republic, though he dismissed the likelihood of a similar Egyptian military role today.