US Military Prepares Iran Strike Options Amid Escalating Tensions; Trump's Decision Looms

The United States military has reportedly developed plans for potential renewed strikes against Iran, according to The Hill. This development raises concerns about a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict, which is approaching its eighth month. Central Command (CENTCOM), responsible for US forces in the Middle East, has reportedly finalized strike options pending White House authorization. These plans were also prepared for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The report suggests these potential attacks could follow the US midterm elections on November 3. However, President Donald Trump indicated on Saturday that strikes could occur as early as "tomorrow," while also leaving open the possibility of a diplomatic "agreement" with Tehran. Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has accused Washington of hindering negotiations but emphasized the need to continue pursuing an agreement. With both nations issuing warnings of further actions, the situation raises questions about whether the conflict could devolve into full-scale war.

Recent reports indicate that military preparations are advancing, though the specific targets or timing of any potential strikes remain unclear. Earlier this month, Axios reported that the Pentagon had directed CENTCOM to finalize preparations for a possible resumption of major combat operations. Sources cited by Axios suggested that a renewed campaign could target Iran's energy facilities, infrastructure, and nuclear sites. These preparations do not constitute an order to attack; the ultimate decision rests with President Trump. His public statements have continued to suggest a dual approach of potential military action and ongoing negotiations.

Adding to the uncertainty, The New York Times reported on Wednesday that the US and Israel have jointly formulated plans for an attack on Iran post-midterm elections. These reports coincide with US warnings regarding alleged Iranian threats against American personnel abroad. An intelligence memo from Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, sent on Friday, stated that Iran had "substantially increased efforts to target US personnel," with lethal plots reportedly reaching "advanced stages" in the Middle East and other regions. Consequently, the Department of State has ordered staffing reductions at several regional embassies amidst these warnings. The memo did not specify targets or a timeline for alleged attacks.

President Trump has further fueled uncertainty. At a rally on Friday, he alluded to the possibility of another operation, referencing the US-Israeli military operation against Iran, codenamed "Epic Fury," which commenced on February 28. On Saturday, he declined to specify the timing of any potential strike, suggesting it could happen as early as Sunday. Julie Norman, an associate fellow at Chatham House, commented that these preparations serve as both short-term posturing and a potential longer-term military objective. "With Trump, I think he is always keeping options on the table, but I think this particular drawing up of plans is an immediate posturing deterrent, but also a very real option after the midterms," she told Al Jazeera.

The US is currently deploying a third aircraft carrier strike group, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, along with approximately 10,000 additional soldiers and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Middle East by the end of November.

Iran's response has been a mix of calls for continued negotiations and warnings of a broader retaliation should the US launch renewed attacks. President Pezeshkian stated on Saturday, "We were having negotiations, the cowards [Americans] messed everything up," while also asserting that efforts to finalize an agreement should persist. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran's parliament speaker and chief negotiator, will reportedly miss the 12th BRICS Parliamentary Forum in New Delhi due to "unforeseen circumstances," according to the Iranian Embassy in India.

On Sunday, Iran's army claimed to have shot down a US-developed LUCAS drone over the southern port city of Bandar Abbas, as reported by the semi-official Tasnim news agency. Reuters has quoted Iranian security officials stating that Tehran has developed plans to target undersea communication cables in the Gulf in the event of renewed US and Israeli attacks. This incident followed Iranian claims of seven oil tankers being damaged or catching fire in and around the Strait of Hormuz earlier in the week. Iran also announced a shift towards an "offensive" military doctrine, warning that countries hosting bases used in US attacks could become targets.

Hossein Mohebi, a spokesperson for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, stated, "Our defence doctrine was previously defensive; we used to say that if a country attacks us, we will respond. Now we say that if a country attacks us, we will both respond and launch an offensive." This warning heightens the risk of the confrontation spreading across the region, potentially exposing energy infrastructure and countries aligned with Washington. Norman added, "Iran is also drawing up its own target lists to include energy infrastructure and US-aligned states. So I would say both parties are certainly very prepared for another round of escalation and projecting preparedness to each other." She further cautioned, "In the meantime, there is a very high risk of miscalculation by either side, a very high risk of rapid escalation." October has seen over 120 reported attacks on ships, making it the worst month since the conflict began in February.

The timing of any potential US attack is politically sensitive. President Trump faces pressure to avoid renewed escalation before the midterm elections, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly been advocating for an attack amid declining poll support ahead of Tuesday's election. Netanyahu has previously stated that overthrowing Iran's government remains Israel's "primary objective." Mohamad Elmasry, a professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies in Qatar, suggested that recent developments point towards renewed fighting rather than a diplomatic resolution. "There is a lot of signalling, a lot of posturing suggesting that we are headed for another round of fighting," he told Al Jazeera, citing Hegseth's recent visit to Israel and Washington's reported withdrawal of personnel from regional diplomatic and military sites.

"All of that would suggest that the US and Israel are planning [another round of attacks] on Iran, either soon or very soon," Elmasry stated. "One of the fears is this next round of fighting could actually be more dangerous, more catastrophic than the previous round." Norman concluded that while Trump might be considering a strike post-midterms, "the big question for Trump from military advisers is – what would a further round of escalation bring that the other rounds didn’t? What would these strategies do to force Iran to the negotiating table? And I don’t think there has been a clear answer to that."