Europe's Shifting Stance: From Silence to Concern Over US-Israeli War on Iran and its Economic Fallout

Several Western European nations have voiced opposition to a potential resumption of the war on Iran, as escalating global oil prices exacerbate the cost of living crisis across the continent. Initially silent on the US-Israeli bombardment of Iran, major powers like Germany and the UK are now advocating for diplomatic solutions to end the conflict that has disrupted global oil supplies.

The continued disruption to energy supplies is driving up household costs as winter approaches in Europe, fueling protests over living standards that have swept through European capitals in recent weeks. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, highlighted a perceived shift in Germany's stance, referencing remarks by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz during Israel’s June 2025 military campaign: “This is the dirty work Israel is doing for all of us.” Baghaei contrasted these past statements with recent German warnings against renewed attacks and calls for de-escalation, quoting Friedrich Schiller's The Maid of Orleans to illustrate reason being overwhelmed by madness.

Experts suggest Baghaei's comments reflect a broader European trend, with leaders increasingly questioning their support for the US-Israeli war on Iran. As Washington reportedly considers options for renewed attacks, the implications for Europe and the potential strain on transatlantic relations are significant.

How Europe's Position Has Evolved

Following the initial US and Israeli attacks on February 28, leaders from Britain, France, and Germany issued a joint statement condemning Iran’s retaliatory strikes. The statement read: “We condemn Iranian attacks on countries in the region in the strongest terms,” signed by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and Chancellor Merz. While the statement did not condemn the initial US-Israeli attacks, it did call for negotiations.

Nearly eight months into the conflict, European governments are now explicitly cautioning against further military action. A meeting in Istanbul on Friday between the foreign ministers of Britain, France, Germany, and Italy, along with their counterparts from Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Egypt, addressed the conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot stated that further escalation would result in “nothing but losers” and have “very serious consequences for hydrocarbon prices.” He emphasized the group’s call for “utmost restraint” from both sides, citing the unaffordability of another escalation.

These warnings do not necessarily signal an abandonment of European positions on Iran’s nuclear program or regional activities but indicate a notable shift and a lack of unified approach among European governments regarding the Iran war. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has been a consistent opponent of the US-Israeli campaign, describing it at a recent European summit as “illegal, unjust and unjustified” and linking it to Europe’s rising economic costs.

European countries were part of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, which aimed to limit Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. However, then-US President Donald Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, and both the US and Israel cited Iran’s nuclear program as justification for their February attacks.

Use of European Bases

Divisions within Europe have been evident regarding access to military bases and airspace. The February 28 statement from Britain, France, and Germany noted, “We did not participate in these strikes, but are in close contact with our international partners, including the United States, Israel and partners in the region.”

While non-participation in the initial strikes was stated, European countries varied in their support for subsequent operations. Germany initially indicated it would not restrict US use of its bases, including the Ramstein air base. Britain initially withheld permission for the opening attacks but later authorized US use of British bases for specific, limited defensive strikes against Iranian facilities involved in attacks on regional allies, eventually expanding this permission to include operations against missile sites targeting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

France permitted US support aircraft at Istres while stating its support would be for the defense of regional partners rather than direct participation in attacks on Iran. Subsequently, France blocked a weapons flight to Israel related to the campaign. Spain took a firmer stance, refusing permission for attacks from the jointly operated Rota and Moron bases and closing its airspace to US aircraft involved in the war. These differing restrictions, rather than a unified European refusal, drew criticism from Donald Trump, who threatened trade cuts with Spain.

This dispute highlights a growing disagreement over whether alliance commitments obligate European governments to facilitate wars they did not initiate. Mark Hilborne, a senior lecturer at King’s College London, suggested that European leaders might “openly challenge Trump, and limit support,” noting that what began as a diplomatic disagreement is evolving into a situation with more direct consequences, potentially leading to increased resistance to any form of European support.

High Prices and Protests

Following the reported killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the initial strikes, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed “renewed hope for the people of Iran” but also warned of potential instability. By October 16, her focus had shifted to the economic costs for Europe, stating that “Households and industry are paying the price for a war far beyond our borders.”

According to von der Leyen, Europe's expenditure on imported fossil fuels had surged by 106 billion euros, with gas prices rising approximately 140 percent and diesel prices doubling since late February. Disruptions to Gulf supplies and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have also driven up energy prices. Brent crude, which was $72.48 a barrel before the war, reached $126.41 by late April and has remained above $100.

Julie Norman, an associate fellow at Chatham House, noted the economic impact on Europe, stating, “For Europe, there is the economic interest as well, knowing it would further take a toll on energy markets, pushing up prices at a time when European countries are going into winter and the pushback to that.”

Hilborne also pointed to impacts on food and fertilizer prices, with disruptions in the Persian Gulf, a key hub for nitrogen-based fertilizers, causing urea prices to increase by about 70 percent. Supply chains are also affected, as shipping companies face higher insurance premiums and longer routes. Hilborne concluded that the war has had a “direct, measurable and quite a rapid impact on European prices.”

The search for relief from the energy crisis has created further tensions, with Washington urging European governments to release emergency diesel stocks, while Trump eased restrictions on Russian diesel to lower prices, a move criticized by Ukraine and its supporters for potentially bolstering Moscow's war effort.

The political consequences are also significant domestically. Protests concerning living costs, housing, wages, and public services have occurred across France, Belgium, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Albania. While the causes vary, experts identify the cost of living crisis, exacerbated by price increases linked to the Iran war, as a common factor uniting protesters across the continent.

Donatella della Porta, a sociologist and political scientist, stated that opposition to war, alongside anger over military spending diverting funds from welfare, is central to recent youth protests in Europe. She highlighted concerns about military recruitment in schools, weapons research, and the use of ports for arms transport, linking these to broader anxieties about the future. Della Porta observed, “Especially the young protesters are afraid that their future will be stolen not only by global warming but also by wars in which they will be sent to die on the battlefield.” She added that young people also connect wars with genocide, having been influenced by protests against the Israeli genocide of the Palestinians.