Druze Leader Walid Joumblatt Warns of Permanent Israeli Presence in Southern Lebanon

Druze leader Walid Joumblatt has expressed a strong conviction that Israel will maintain its presence in southern Lebanon for decades, stating, "They will never leave." Speaking from his Beirut residence to Hadley Gamble on On The Record, Joumblatt observed, "The Americans are withdrawing. What is left is [Benjamin] Netanyahu controlling and expanding his own territory, his biblical empire." This assessment comes from a figure who has witnessed Lebanon's civil war, the Syrian occupation, and the assassination of his father.

Joumblatt's perspective highlights a discernible regional shift. With the United States reducing its troop presence and Russia preoccupied with its own conflict, Israel has emerged as the dominant military power in the region. He points to the extensive destruction in southern Lebanon as evidence, contrasting it with earlier incursions where the region largely survived. This time, he asserts, Israel is "just trying to eradicate all the memories of the south of Lebanon, as if they are preparing for settlements, colonies." According to Defense Minister Israel Katz, Israel currently occupies "security zones" on three fronts: southern Lebanon, southern Syria beyond the 1974 disengagement line, and approximately 70 percent of Gaza. Katz stated on October 21 that Israel has no intention of withdrawing from any of these areas.

"The policy of Israel, past, actual and future, is to erase Palestinian nationhood from Gaza to the West Bank, and expand to Syria and Lebanon," Mr. Joumblatt declared, adding, "It doesn't matter who wins." Israeli officials claim their forces have destroyed over 60 villages and around 23,000 structures in southern Lebanon, with displacement orders covering about 2,000 square kilometers south of the Zahrani River, barring residents from returning. Israel's far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich had called for the annexation of territory up to the Litani River in March.

The conflict has had a devastating impact on Lebanon. The Ministry of Health reports 4,389 fatalities between March 2, when Hezbollah joined the regional war in support of Iran, and October 12. While Hezbollah has sustained significant losses, estimated by US and Israeli figures at around 2,500 fighters since February, the group remains operational. A June framework agreement aimed at a phased Israeli withdrawal in exchange for Hezbollah's disarmament has stalled, with Israel deeming the deal "performance-based" and contingent on Hezbollah ceasing to be a threat. Seven rounds of direct negotiations have yielded no agreement, with military talks at US Central Command concluding on October 22 without a future meeting scheduled.

Mr. Joumblatt criticized the Lebanese ministers' belief that Washington would pressure Israel to withdraw, calling it "a total fallacy." He also dismissed the disarmament demand as impractical, citing the presence of drone factories in Baalbek and the difficulty of achieving complete disarmament. He suggested this serves the interests of a force intending to remain in the region. Israeli threats, he warned, are escalating. On October 14, Minister Katz cautioned that if Hezbollah joined any Iranian attack, areas around Nabatieh and the Litani would become a permanent "security zone," leading to the displacement of residents from Beirut's southern suburbs and over a million Shiites.

The situation in Syria mirrors these concerns. Following the fall of former President Bashar Al Assad in December 2024, Israel reportedly moved beyond the 1974 disengagement line, with forces now approximately 40km from Damascus, potentially seeking control of water resources from Mount Hermon. Mr. Joumblatt noted that Syrian President Ahmad Al Shara, whom he supports, lacks a military capable of resisting, as Assad allegedly dismantled the army by turning it against his own people, and Israel would prevent its modernization.

Joumblatt directed sharp criticism towards members of his own Druze community. He highlighted the actions of Hikmat Al Hijri, a Druze spiritual leader in Syria's Sweida province, who has advocated for secession from Damascus under Israeli protection. Al Hijri's camp has established an administrative council for Jabal Bashan and declared the Druze an "inseparable part" of Israel, with supporters marching with Israeli flags. Joumblatt denounced Al Hijri as a "puppet in the hands of the Israelis" and stated that his followers were choosing to be "used by the Israelis as good soldiers," going down "the wrong path of history." He asserted that the Israeli government, not the Druze community, makes decisions for Israeli Druze.

Joumblatt perceives a unified Israeli objective: establishing a belt of Druze-populated territory from the occupied Golan Heights through southern Syria and along southern Lebanon, framed as protection for a minority. This concept, sometimes referred to as "David's Corridor," has been discussed by Arab and Turkish analysts. While Israel has not officially acknowledged such a plan, evidence suggests its pursuit. Damascus has deployed troops to Sweida amid reports of Israeli surveillance equipment being flown into the province. Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al Shibani has accused Israel of funding and arming Druze militias, with a senior Syrian official warning of an imminent Israeli-backed offensive. In February, the Israeli military created a new post to liaise with Druze communities in Syria and Lebanon, filled by Druze officer Maj Gen Ghassan Alian. Reports indicate Israeli officers urged Christian and Druze villages in southern Lebanon to expel Muslim residents sheltering among them, leading to the displacement of over 200 people. Recently, Israeli tanks advanced towards Hebbariyeh, a Druze-majority area in southern Lebanon bordering Syria.

Israel claims its involvement in Sweida is to protect Druze from a massacre, a claim made during the July 2025 violence that resulted in approximately 1,700 deaths. Joumblatt acknowledged the killings but also noted that Druze fighters had driven Bedouin families from their homes, suggesting a need for an inquiry and compromise, which he states did not occur. He maintains that Al Hijri does not represent all Syrian Druze, many of whom live alongside Christians and Muslims in Damascus suburbs and are alienated by his separatist agenda. Joumblatt invoked historical figures Sultan Al Atrash and his father, Kamal Joumblatt, expressing a sense of abandonment by some Druze but vowing to continue his path. He considers abandoning Arab solidarity "suicide" for a minority.

With traditional regional counterweights diminished or preoccupied, Joumblatt believes Israel's power will be unchecked. He acknowledged that while American presence did not guarantee calm, it was significant. He affirmed that America's withdrawal has created a vacuum that Israel is filling. Russia's focus remains on the war in Ukraine, Europe is sidelined by Washington, and Saudi Arabia is absorbed by its conflict with Yemen's Houthis. "The Arab world nowadays is powerless," Joumblatt stated.

Joumblatt advocates for Lebanon to adopt neutrality, similar to Switzerland, but acknowledges this requires regional consent, which he believes Israel would oppose. His long-standing prescription for Lebanon involves national dialogue, state monopoly on arms, and the negotiated decommissioning of Hezbollah's weapons with Iranian support. Critics, including some Western diplomats, deem his stance on Hezbollah too lenient. He countered by referencing the Lebanese military's fragmentation during the 1980s civil war. His request to Washington is for "better diplomats here, and better policy there." He reiterated his central point: with the US stepping back, Israel feels empowered "to do whatever they want, everywhere, anywhere, using force."