Lula's Comeback: How Brazil's Leftist Leader Clinched a Fourth Term After Trailing in First Round

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has secured a remarkable election victory, defeating far-right rival Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. This win is particularly significant as Lula trailed Bolsonaro by over two million votes in the initial round of voting held earlier in October. The 80-year-old leftist leader has now claimed an unprecedented fourth term, marking a historic achievement as the first candidate since Brazil's return to democracy in 1985 to win a presidential run-off after finishing second in the opening round.

Addressing jubilant supporters at a victory parade in Sao Paulo, Lula declared, “I just had to tell you that I love you. Tomorrow, the fight continues.” He emphasized the importance of inclusive governance, stating, “No one is required to like the president-elect, but he must govern for everyone.” Lula's triumph represents a considerable setback for the right-wing political movement that has seen growth across Latin America, often with support from former United States President Donald Trump. The article explores how Lula managed to turn the tide in just three weeks and the challenges he now confronts.

The Results:

Lula, who was set to turn 81 the day after the election, garnered 51.79 percent of the valid votes, totaling 64.26 million ballots. In contrast, Bolsonaro received 48.21 percent, with 59.83 million votes, according to the final tally. This outcome was a stark reversal from the October 4 first round, where Bolsonaro led with 47.03 percent against Lula's 45.16 percent, a margin of approximately 2.2 million votes. Voter turnout on Sunday was robust at 80.8 percent, an increase of nearly 2 percent from the first round's 78.92 percent.

Following the run-off, Bolsonaro declined to concede and called for the annulment of the results after Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered voting to be extended by two hours. Both candidates had requested extensions, citing issues with transport disruptions and severe weather. This controversy bears resemblance to the aftermath of the 2022 election, when Flavio's father, Jair Bolsonaro, refused to accept his defeat. Jair Bolsonaro was later convicted of plotting a coup and sentenced to 27 years in prison, currently serving his sentence under house arrest.

However, experts suggest that Flavio Bolsonaro faces considerable hurdles in challenging the election outcome. Vinicius G. Rodrigues Vieira, a professor of economics and international relations at the Armando Alvares Penteado Foundation, indicated that Bolsonaro's legal arguments were weak, especially since his own campaign had requested an extension. Vieira commented, “I don’t think that will resonate in the courts, but certainly will help Bolsonarismo, the far-right movement here in Brazil, to remain politically strong on the streets.”

Lula's Turnaround Strategy:

Analysts attribute Lula's comeback to a revitalized grassroots campaign, effective youth mobilization, and a strategic shift towards digital campaigning. Al Jazeera correspondent Monica Yanakiew reported from Sao Paulo that young Brazilians spontaneously organized online following Bolsonaro's first-round victory, forming what became known as “Lula’s army.” Yanakiew noted, “It was this army that went to the streets, millions of people across Brazil, and young people just mobilised themselves, energised the campaign, which frankly was not very energised at all before the first round.”

Gustavo Ribeiro, editor-in-chief of The Brazilian Report, observed that Lula’s campaign initially appeared complacent. “Lula’s campaign also got its act together after a first round in which it acted as if this election was in the bag and essentially running an anachronistic, mostly offline campaign,” Ribeiro stated. He added that the campaign significantly pivoted towards a digital approach and grassroots engagement, with Lula adeptly leveraging “the power of incumbency very cleverly in his favour.” Ribeiro concluded, “I would say this is more the merit of Lula, even if Bolsonaro just worked to run off the clock.”

Other experts concurred, suggesting that Bolsonaro's own missteps likely contributed to his defeat. Academic Vieira argued that the senator grew overconfident after his first-round win. “In the first week, he was already behaving as if he were already the president-elect. He was appointing ministers,” Vieira pointed out. “If there is something Brazilian people don’t like [it’s] arrogance, so Mr. Flavio is paying a very high price for this,” he added. Ribeiro also questioned Bolsonaro's broader political appeal, noting, “He does not have his father’s charisma. He was essentially running on his father’s last name.”

Increased voter turnout was another crucial factor. Approximately 33.4 million Brazilians abstained in the first round, representing about 21 percent of the electorate. This abstention rate dropped to around 19 percent in the run-off. Fernando Brancoli, an international relations professor at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, suggested that previously non-voting citizens participated more actively in the second round. “We already know that a large number of people who didn’t vote [in] the first round, they now showed up,” he told Al Jazeera. Brancoli also posited that some first-round Bolsonaro voters might have switched their allegiance to Lula, though detailed voting patterns remain unconfirmed.

Vieira described the election as potentially one of the most significant in Brazil's history. He explained that since the end of the 21-year dictatorship in 1985, Brazil has established a “constitutional setting” that has provided social rights to its population more than ever before in the nation's history. “That’s so important for the Brazilian people because we still have high levels of inequality,” Vieira stated, emphasizing the importance of maintaining “a very high degree of political participation.” In contrast, he noted that the far-right Bolsonarismo movement has attempted to “curtail voting rights” through “voting suppression tactics.”

Challenges Ahead for Lula:

Despite his victory, Lula faces a Congress largely dominated by conservative parties, which could significantly impede his legislative agenda. The Liberal Party, Bolsonaro's party, along with its allies, may control over 280 seats in the lower house and up to 50 of the 81 Senate seats, potentially granting the opposition majorities in both chambers. Brancoli cautioned that Lula will have limited room to maneuver. “We can definitely expect Lula’s government [is] not going to be able to push for a broad agenda. You’ll get small wins, and you’ll have to negotiate with those groups,” he predicted.

Economic pressures present another substantial challenge. Brazil's public debt has surpassed 82 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP), according to the World Bank, with government forecasts predicting a growth rate of just 2.3 percent for the upcoming year. Furthermore, Brancoli highlighted that Lula must also address security concerns and household debt, issues that played a role in making the election highly competitive. The president's age also raises questions about the future of his Workers' Party (PT) and the succession plan for the long-standing leader, as Brancoli noted, “There’s no one that could substitute him, and he’s older.”