US Midterm Elections 2026: Congress Control and Trump's Power on the Line

On November 3, approximately 210 million registered voters will determine the extent of Donald Trump's authority for the remainder of his US presidency. Although Trump himself is not on the ballot, the control of the United States Congress, comprising the House of Representatives and the Senate, is at stake. Congress is responsible for drafting the nation's laws and overseeing federal expenditures. In this detailed explainer, Al Jazeera examines the mechanics of these elections, identifies crucial races, and analyzes the potential implications of the outcomes for both major parties.

What Transpires in the Midterm Elections?

Held midway through a US president's four-year term, midterm elections are pivotal in shaping the composition of Congress. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the Senate's 100 seats are up for election. This includes special elections in Florida and Ohio to fill vacancies left by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance, respectively. Additionally, voters in 36 states will elect governors. House members, representing individual congressional districts, serve two-year terms, while senators serve six-year terms.

Midterm elections are widely regarded as a barometer of the sitting president's performance. Historical data from 1946 indicates that the president's party typically loses an average of 26.5 seats in the House and a few in the Senate during these elections, according to Todd Belt, a professor of political management at George Washington University. Beyond congressional and gubernatorial races, voters will also select state legislators and local officials. Nadia Brown, a professor of government at Georgetown University, emphasizes the significance of local politics, stating, "It is important to remember that local politics is where most Americans interact with government." She further noted that "It is the local propositions or referendums on ballots [that] will impact the everyday lives of people."

What is at Stake in the House and Senate?

Currently, Republicans hold majorities in both the House and the Senate. A loss of control in either chamber would empower Democrats to obstruct legislation and initiate investigations into the Trump administration. To gain control of the House, Democrats need to secure three additional seats, and for the Senate, they require a net gain of four seats. A 50-50 split in the Senate would result in Republican control due to Vice President Vance's tie-breaking vote. Belt suggests that a Democratic victory could substantially impede Trump's ability to advance his domestic agenda, predicting, "If Democrats take one chamber, all non-government funding legislation will grind to a halt."

How Do House Elections Function?

The House of Representatives, the lower chamber of the US Congress, consists of 435 members, each representing a specific district and serving two-year terms, meaning all seats are contested biennially. The allocation of seats among states is based on population, determined by the decennial US Census. California, the most populous state, holds 52 seats, while less populous states like Wyoming and Vermont have one each. A party requires 218 seats to achieve a majority. Republicans currently lead the House with 218 seats to the Democrats' 214, with one independent member aligning with the Republicans. Two seats are vacant, one previously held by each party. The newly elected House members are scheduled to be sworn in on January 3, 2027.

Key House Races to Watch

Each district elects its representative independently, and the party winning 218 seats secures control. Consequently, a few closely contested races can determine the overall majority. Belt estimates that approximately 35 House races could be decisive. He anticipates Democrats might gain around 15 seats, despite Republican redistricting efforts that he believes have bolstered their advantage in nine additional districts. "People generally vote straight ticket, meaning they will vote for all the candidates of one party, so this is likely to affect down-ballot races [as well]," he observed. A battleground district is defined as a seat that either party could realistically win. The accompanying graphic highlights 12 such critical races.

How Do Senate Elections Function?

The Senate, the upper chamber of the US Congress, comprises 100 members, with two senators representing each state regardless of population. Senators are elected statewide and serve six-year terms, with approximately one-third of the seats up for election every two years. This year, 33 seats are being contested in regular elections, in addition to special elections in Florida and Ohio to fill the remaining two years of the terms previously held by Marco Rubio and JD Vance. Of the 35 seats in contention, Republicans hold 22, and Democrats hold 13. Republicans currently have 53 senators, while Democrats have 45. Two independents align with the Democratic bloc, bringing their total to 47 seats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51 and secure control. Republicans can maintain control with 50 seats, as Vice President Vance can cast tie-breaking votes. The new Senate is slated to be sworn in on January 3, 2027.

Key Senate Races to Watch

To win the Senate, Democrats must defend their 13 incumbent seats and flip Republican-held seats. In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff faces Republican Mike Collins. Michigan's open seat features a contest between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers, while in New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas competes against Republican John Sununu for an open seat. Republican-held seats present opportunities for Democrats in other states. In Maine, Senator Susan Collins is challenged by Democrat Troy Jackson, who replaced primary winner Graham Platner after his withdrawal in July. North Carolina's open seat pits Democrat Roy Cooper against Republican Michael Whatley. Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa are also identified as competitive states, while Texas and Kansas have garnered increasing attention as Democrats seek additional pathways to a majority. Although the path to a Senate majority is more challenging for Democrats than for the House, election analysts note that the rising number of competitive races has improved their prospects of winning the chamber.

What Are the Key Election Issues?

The cost of living is the paramount concern for voters, with escalating petrol prices, housing expenses, and healthcare coverage straining household budgets. Reproductive rights remain a significant issue, alongside immigration and the state of US democracy, which are also on the ballot. The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, and the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers, have further amplified concerns regarding security, employment, and energy costs.

Who Participates in the Midterms?

Approximately 210 million Americans are registered to vote, representing nearly 80 percent of US residents aged 18 and older, according to USAFacts, a nonpartisan organization that compiles government data. California leads with the highest number of registered voters at 23.2 million, followed by Texas with 17.4 million and Florida with 13.6 million. These three states collectively account for about 26 percent of all registered voters. Conversely, Wyoming (278,468), Vermont (459,455), and Alaska (603,310) have the fewest registered voters.

Voting Preferences Among Different Groups

A Pew Research Center survey conducted between September 28 and October 4 revealed that 44 percent of registered voters favored the Democratic candidate in their district, compared to 36 percent for the Republican candidate. Five percent expressed support for other candidates, and 15 percent remained undecided. Men were evenly split, with 42 percent supporting each party, while women favored Democrats by a margin of 45 percent to 31 percent. The accompanying graphic illustrates how voting preferences vary across gender, race, age, education, and party affiliation.

US Election Voter Turnout

Voter turnout in midterm elections is generally lower than in presidential elections. Since 1944, the average turnout for midterms has been around 42 percent, compared to 58 percent for presidential races.

Potential Outcomes if Republicans Lose the House

A Democratic-controlled House would possess the authority to block Republican legislation and utilize its committees to investigate the Trump administration. It would also hold the power to initiate impeachment proceedings against the president, an action exclusively within the House's purview. This control would grant Democrats leverage over government funding, as all legislation requires approval from both chambers. Belt anticipates that a Democratic-controlled House would lead to increased confrontations over federal spending, including the 12 annual bills necessary to fund federal agencies, potentially resulting in further government shutdowns. He also believes that Trump might increasingly focus on foreign policy if his domestic agenda encounters congressional opposition, stating, "Traditionally, presidents facing divided government in their last two years pivot to foreign policy almost exclusively. I think the same will be true for Trump."

Potential Outcomes if Republicans Lose the Senate

A Democratic Senate could obstruct legislation and reject presidential nominees, including federal judges, Supreme Court justices, cabinet officials, and ambassadors. This makes Senate control significant beyond the immediate two-year term, as federal judges serve for life and influence rulings long after a presidency concludes. The Senate also presides over impeachment trials initiated by the House. However, removing a president from office requires a two-thirds majority, a threshold unlikely to be met by either party.

Would Democratic Control of Both Chambers Guarantee Full Power?

No. Donald Trump would remain president and retain the power to veto legislation, with overriding a veto requiring a two-thirds vote in each chamber. Senate rules also mandate 60 votes to end debate on most legislation, although certain budget bills can pass with a simple majority. Therefore, a slim majority does not guarantee a party's ability to enact its agenda. A Democratic House could initiate impeachment proceedings against Trump, who has been impeached twice previously. However, removal from office necessitates a two-thirds Senate majority. Belt views another impeachment as unlikely, stating, "There will definitely be investigations," but adding, "There will not likely be another impeachment because Democrats tried that twice and Republicans rallied behind Trump."

When Will the Results Be Known?

Results are expected to begin emerging after the initial polls close at 6 p.m. Eastern Time (23:00 GMT) on November 3. However, resolving closely contested races may take several days. Election night results are preliminary, and final tallies can take days or even weeks as officials process mail-in, provisional, and other outstanding ballots before certification, with the pace varying by state. "In some states, it may take up to a week or more," Belt noted. Some contests might extend further; for instance, if no Senate candidate in Georgia secures a majority, the race will proceed to a run-off election on December 1.

Belt cautioned that early results could present a misleading picture of the final outcome. Given that Republicans have historically been less inclined than Democrats to vote by mail, some states might initially appear to favor Republican candidates before later-counted ballots narrow or reverse their leads—a phenomenon known as the "red mirage." Conversely, in states that count mail ballots first, the opposite trend may occur. Delays in counting or shifts in the leading candidate do not, in themselves, indicate electoral fraud. The election's outcome will determine who crafts legislation, scrutinizes the administration, and controls federal spending, thereby establishing the balance of power for the remainder of Trump's term.