Lula's BRICS Reassurance: Global South Cheers Brazilian President's Victory Amidst Shifting World Order

Supporters gathered to watch Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speak after his victory in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on October 25, 2026, an event captured by Brian Snyder/Reuters. When Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva secured an unexpected election victory on Sunday, clinching an unprecedented fourth term, his supporters were filled with euphoria. The jubilation over Lula’s win has resonated across significant portions of the Global South and may offer renewed hope to the BRICS alliance, an organization striving to grant emerging economies a more prominent role on the global stage.

Experts suggest that at a time when United States President Donald Trump is working to reassert American power and has identified BRICS as a threat to U.S. interests, Lula’s triumph in Brazil provides the alliance with a degree of political reassurance. A victory for his rival, Flavio Bolsonaro, who has ties to Trump and advocated for reconsidering Brazil's position within BRICS, could have jeopardized the country's commitment to the bloc. Instead, Lula's return removes a potential reason for the grouping to fear internal retreat, as it continues to foster a more multipolar future in a world currently dominated by the U.S.

Esmat Zaidan, a professor of public policy at Qatar’s Hamad Bin Khalifa University, stated to Al Jazeera, “The victory of Lula is important to BRICS’ political continuation in the current climate as it seeks to increase the bloc’s role and make it stronger in global governance.”

A Spared Fracture

Analysts recognized that Lula’s win would ensure the BRICS alliance's continuity, whereas its future might have faltered under Bolsonaro. Lula himself was instrumental in the bloc's inception nearly two decades ago and has consistently worked to enhance its global standing.

According to Zaidan, Bolsonaro's inclination to re-evaluate Brazil's participation in BRICS and instead pursue closer ties with Washington would have diminished the bloc's political cohesion and potentially hindered cooperation on trade and financial reforms. Imran Khalid, a geostrategic analyst and senior fellow at Foreign Policy in Focus, noted that Bolsonaro had reportedly assured the U.S. Trade Representative that Brazil's instant payment system, Pix, would not be integrated into non-Western payment schemes, aligning with the U.S. objective to preserve the dollar's global dominance.

“BRICS makes decisions by consensus, so one unwilling founding member can slow everything down from the inside. That was the real risk, more than Brazil walking out,” Khalid informed Al Jazeera. However, Zaidan cautioned that the alliance's continuity does not equate to complete internal unity. “The member countries of BRICS have distinctly different economic interests and geopolitical goals,” he observed. “Therefore, while Lula’s victory makes it easier for the BRICS bloc to continue working towards a common agenda, his election did not eliminate these distinct differences.”

Guy Burton, a geopolitical and policy analyst, concurred that the bloc's internal differences would persist despite Brazil's election outcome. “BRICS matters because it represents a large share of the world’s population, economy and trade. But it has never really acted as a political unit. Its members are too different,” he commented. “The bloc now includes Iran and the UAE, which sit on opposite sides of the current war. That tells you how limited its cohesion is,” Burton added.

More Multipolarity, But Not a Counterweight to Washington

The palpable relief in the Global South following Lula’s win reflects a widespread concern among many emerging economies regarding their vulnerability to decisions made in Washington, particularly concerning trade, tariffs, and international economic relations, according to Zaidan. “For these countries, the issue is not necessarily opposition to the U.S. It is about having greater room to make independent decisions and avoiding excessive dependence on any single global power,” he explained.

Khalid highlighted the support for Lula from China and Russia, with Xi Jinping backing him against external interference and the Kremlin commending his contributions to the BRICS alliance. “Most of these countries do not want a fight with the United States; they want the freedom to say no to Washington without being punished for it,” he elaborated. “A strong Brazil inside BRICS helps protect that freedom.”

Lula has long championed a more multipolar international system, advocating for emerging economies to have a stronger voice in shaping global rules and institutions, as noted by Zaidan. Burton pointed out that even nations and regions outside the Global South are seeking to reduce their reliance on Washington, including Europe, which is bolstering its security measures against Russia and in support of Ukraine. “So states, whether in the Western camp or not, have accepted that they must pursue their own interests. That means working with whoever they can. We are moving into a genuinely multipolar world,” he stated.

Nevertheless, BRICS' inherent diversity and the varied interests of its member states have prevented it from acting as a cohesive counterweight to the West, experts observed. Many within the alliance maintain robust economic and security ties with the U.S., according to Zaidan. “I would see Lula’s victory as strengthening the case for strategic autonomy rather than confrontation with Washington,” the professor commented. “BRICS is potentially more effective when it expands the choices available to its members, rather than defining itself simply through opposition to the United States.”

Burton agreed, referencing Brazil's evolving relationship with Trump over the years. “Russia and China are the obvious U.S. rivals. But India under Modi long had a close relationship with Washington, and with Trump in particular, even if that has weakened recently,” he recalled. “Brazil, too, was close to Trump under Jair Bolsonaro, Flavio Bolsonaro’s father, when he was in office.”

Challenging Dollar Dependence

One of BRICS' significant objectives is to promote trade in local currencies instead of the U.S. dollar. Lula’s victory could provide the necessary political impetus to advance these efforts, given Brazil's status as one of the bloc's largest trading economies, according to Zaidan. Khalid mentioned that following the alliance's decision to abandon the concept of a common BRICS currency at the recent summit in New Delhi in September, its ambition for local currency trade has become considerably more feasible.

“If the [BRICS’ New Development Bank] moves towards its goal of 30 percent of lending in member currencies, and Brazil and China settle more trade in reais and yuan as they agreed in 2023, reliance on the dollar falls step by step, without an open confrontation,” he explained. However, Zaidan emphasized that political will alone is insufficient. “Countries also need reliable payment infrastructure, sufficient currency liquidity, appropriate financial regulations, and businesses willing to use these arrangements,” he stated.

For the time being, the dollar remains dominant in foreign exchange transactions, and a significant shift may not occur for another decade, according to Burton. Ultimately, Lula’s re-election could facilitate BRICS' transition from political discourse to more practical financial cooperation, with the reduction of dollar dependence being a gradual, uneven process driven by economic feasibility as much as geopolitical ambition, Zaidan concluded. How Washington responds to these developments presents another variable; Trump's administration faces the paradox of seeking to maintain global superpower status while simultaneously retreating into a protectionist, America-first posture, as noted by Burton. “Developments such as Lula’s re-election will only sharpen the pressures already building in the Global North,” the expert predicted.