Israel Election Results: No Clear Winner, Political Uncertainty Looms

Exit polls from Israel’s legislative elections indicate that no single party or bloc has secured a clear mandate to form a new government. The polls, released by major Israeli television networks on Tuesday, suggest that the coalition led by current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party is on track to win 50 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. Meanwhile, the opposition bloc, headed by former Israeli military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party, is projected to secure 52 seats. This outcome could leave neither bloc with the necessary 61 seats for a majority, potentially leading to weeks or months of political negotiations to establish Israel’s next government.

Additionally, Arab-led parties, which are not aligned with either major coalition, are projected to win 18 seats, positioning them as potential kingmakers if other parties agree to cooperate with them.

Party Reactions and Political Analysis

Gadi Eisenkot stated that the exit polls reflect a “lack of confidence” in Benjamin Netanyahu. Yair Lapid, the current opposition leader, described the prime minister’s bloc as having suffered a “crushing defeat” and a “total collapse,” asserting that the public has signaled for them to step down. However, Gideon Saar, Israel’s foreign minister and a Likud party member, cautioned against premature celebrations from the opposition, noting in a social media post, “Likud is the largest party in Israel. It is always good to learn something from the past.” Benjamin Netanyahu, the head of Likud, has held the prime minister position for nearly 19 of the last 30 years and has a history of navigating political crises.

Ehab Jabareen, a Palestinian political analyst and researcher in Israel, commented to Al Jazeera that the initial exit poll projections show a “clear weakening of Netanyahu’s bloc.” However, he advised caution in definitively declaring a Netanyahu victory or the end of his political career. Jabareen noted, “The exit polls suggest that his bloc has lost its majority, but they also suggest that his opponents face a difficult task in building one.” He added, “If neither side can form a government, Netanyahu could remain in office as caretaker while the negotiations continue.”

Presidential Nomination and Coalition Formation Timeline

Following the final vote tally on November 4, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will consult with party leaders regarding their preferred prime minister candidate. He will then nominate the individual he believes has the strongest prospect of forming a government, which is not necessarily the leader of the party with the most seats. With Netanyahu and Eisenkot’s parties emerging as the strongest contenders, they are considered the leading candidates for nomination.

The nominated leader will have up to 42 days to form a coalition: an initial 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension from the president. This period is expected to involve intensive negotiations and deal-making, with parties seeking policy concessions or ministerial positions as the candidate attempts to secure at least 61 seats. If a full coalition cannot be formed, the candidate might explore forming a minority government with support from smaller parties or negotiate a power-sharing arrangement with rotating prime ministerial roles. A new government must win a parliamentary confidence vote by a simple majority to be sworn in, which could be less than 61 votes if some parties abstain.

Contingency Plans and Historical Precedents

If the initial candidate fails to form a government, President Herzog has the discretion to ask another Knesset member to attempt the task within 28 days. Should this second attempt also fail, a majority of Knesset members could propose a third candidate, who would have a final 14 days to assemble a coalition. If the Knesset remains deadlocked, it would be formally dissolved, triggering new elections within 90 days. During this interim period, Netanyahu’s government would continue to serve as a caretaker government.

This situation echoes past political gridlock, where prolonged impasses in the Knesset led to three rounds of elections between April 2019 and March 2020. The outcome was a power-sharing agreement between Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, intended to rotate the premiership, but that government dissolved after a year due to failure to pass a budget.

Challenges with Arab-led Parties

Despite exit polls suggesting the Arab-led parties could play a pivotal role, both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have publicly ruled out forming partnerships with them, citing a lack of shared values. Israeli political analyst Asaf Ronel observed that while exit polls may indicate an end to Netanyahu’s “nightmarish government,” significant obstacles remain for other leaders in overcoming “racism and refusal” to collaborate with Arab-led groups. Ronel concluded, “The question now is whether they can let go of their racist elections promise, otherwise the most likely scenarios is that we are back to another round of elections in the next few months.”