Israel Election Results Uncertain: No Clear Majority for Netanyahu or Opposition

Jerusalem — Exit polls released Tuesday night indicated that Israel's election has not produced a clear winner, with neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor his primary challenger, Gadi Eisenkot, positioned to secure the 61 seats required for a governing majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Projections from the three major Israeli television channels (11, 12, and 13) suggested Netanyahu's bloc would secure 51-52 seats, a significant decrease from the 68-seat coalition he led previously. While his Likud party is still expected to be the largest, with an estimated 25-27 seats, the path to remaining in power is now uncertain, as Israeli politics hinges on coalition building rather than party size.

The opposition faces its own complex route to forming a government. Despite exit polls showing parties opposing Netanyahu collectively winning a majority of 68-70 seats, they are fragmented across the political spectrum—right, left, and center—and include both Jewish and Arab parties. Eisenkot's Yashar party emerged as the largest opposition faction, projected to win 21-23 seats. However, his potential path to leadership requires cooperation with Arab parties, a scenario not all opposition leaders are willing to accept.

An outlier projection from the pro-Netanyahu Channel 14 suggested a more favorable outcome for the Prime Minister, forecasting his bloc with 60 seats and Likud alone with 30. Nevertheless, these are exit poll projections, and the final results are anticipated to shift as actual votes are tallied over the coming days.

No Quick Victory Declarations

As exit polls revealed both Netanyahu and Eisenkot falling short of a majority, both leaders addressed their supporters, attempting to frame the night as a victory. Netanyahu, speaking in Jerusalem, thanked voters for what he described as a renewed vote of confidence but stopped short of claiming an outright win. He emphasized that Likud was the largest party and that the right-wing bloc held a clear majority among the Zionist and Jewish public, stating the necessity of establishing a strong national right-wing government free from reliance on "anti-Zionist Arab parties."

Eisenkot, in Tel Aviv, also refrained from declaring victory but asserted that Israel had voted against Netanyahu's continued premiership. He stated, "The public has voted for change. The coalition of failure has lost the people’s trust." He further suggested that a "worthy leader" would acknowledge the public's vote of no confidence and retire from politics.

Surge for Arab Parties Adds Complexity

The election saw the highest voter turnout since 1999, exceeding 77.7 percent, with a particularly notable increase among Israel's Arab population. Arab parties reported turnout above 75 percent, projecting a historic showing of 17-19 seats for the Joint List and Raam. This surge was largely driven by a desire among Palestinian citizens of Israel to oust Netanyahu's right-wing coalition, which includes hardline ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, whose tenure has been marked by rising crime rates in Arab communities.

Leaders from the Joint List and Raam hailed the results as a historic day and proof of their political significance. However, the increased turnout among Arab parties, while potentially hindering Netanyahu's majority, also complicates Eisenkot's path to power. Eisenkot's conditions for joining a government, such as recognizing Israel as a Jewish state and designating Hamas as a terrorist organization, are terms unlikely to be accepted by most Arab lawmakers. Furthermore, opposition allies Avigdor Liberman and Naftali Bennett have explicitly ruled out forming a government that includes Arab parties, further obscuring Eisenkot's route to victory.

What Happens Next?

With exit polls offering only projections, the final vote count, expected to take several days, will determine the definitive outcome. Following the certification of results, Israeli President Isaac Herzog will initiate consultations with elected parties to determine who receives the mandate to form a government. This decision is not solely based on the largest party but on the president's assessment of who is most likely to assemble a 61-seat majority. The chosen candidate will then have 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension, to negotiate coalition agreements, including cabinet positions, budget priorities, and policy commitments. Failure to form a government within the allotted time could lead to the mandate being passed to another candidate or, ultimately, to new elections if the Knesset cannot agree on a candidate.

Given the absence of a clear majority for either side, a political deadlock remains a plausible outcome. President Herzog might explore the possibility of a unity government between Netanyahu and Eisenkot, though the feasibility of such an arrangement is uncertain, given their past political history and stated positions.