Israel Election Deadlock: Netanyahu's Bloc Falls Short Amidst Deep Political Divisions

With neither the governing nor opposition blocs in Israel securing a parliamentary majority following the recent election, and both appearing unwilling to ally with Arab parties, speculation is mounting regarding the future composition of the government. The election, considered one of the most significant in Israel's history, saw a turnout of 77.7 percent, the highest since 1999. As of Wednesday afternoon, with nearly 80 percent of votes tallied, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led coalition had garnered 54 seats, falling short of the 61 needed to form a government. The opposition, led by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot and encompassing parties like Yair Golan's Democrats and Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, secured 49 seats. The Arab-dominated Ra’am and Joint List parties hold a theoretical balance of power with 17 seats, potentially enabling either bloc to form a majority. Final results are expected by Friday, with official publication on November 4. The next steps involve President Isaac Herzog consulting party leaders to nominate a candidate for prime minister, who will then have 28 days, extendable by 14, to form a coalition. Failure to do so could lead to new elections. Turnout among Palestinian citizens of Israel, representing one-fifth of the population, was approximately 80 percent, a figure attributed by analysts to the harsh treatment by the Likud-led government, particularly after the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attack. Netanyahu's government, characterized as the most right-wing in Israeli history, includes figures like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, whose anti-Palestinian rhetoric has been noted. Analysts also pointed to a well-organized campaign by Arab parties targeting the community's demands and increasing their representation in the Knesset. Roi Zur, a lecturer at Essex University, noted the efficiency of two major lists, particularly Ra’am's campaign. Zur also highlighted a broader shift in how voters perceive their place in Israeli politics post-October 7, with some feeling more integrated and invested in the political system. However, both major blocs ran campaigns criticized as racist. Likud accused the opposition of planning to rely on Arab parties, while petitioning to bar the Joint List. The opposition, meanwhile, saw leaders like Lieberman rule out coalitions with Arab or ultra-Orthodox parties, and Naftali Bennett state there was no mandate for such alliances after October 7. Former government adviser Daniel Levy commented that the opposition offered no substantive alternative to Netanyahu. Levy outlined four potential scenarios: a new election, Likud securing defectors, a Netanyahu-led unity government, or the opposition forming a minority government with Arab support, though he deemed the latter unlikely. The possibility of defection in the polarized society remains uncertain. The opposition's campaign focused on issues like the exemption from military service for ultra-Orthodox youth and calls for an inquiry into pre-October 7 security failings. Mairav Zonszein of Crisis Group suggested Eisenkot would find it difficult to work with Netanyahu's camp due to these issues. She noted Bennett and Lieberman might be more flexible, with Lieberman's hard-right stance potentially aligning him with Likud. Speculation also includes the possibility of the Netanyahu government seeking military escalation as a pretext for an emergency government. Political psychologist Daniel Bar Tal described the situation as challenging, noting that many Israelis desire change but are unwilling to cooperate with Arab parties.