US Midterms 2026: Democrats Lead National Polls as Final Push Underway Amidst Alaskan Legal Dispute

With just four days remaining until the United States midterm elections, Democrats are currently ahead in national polls, as both major parties intensify their final efforts to secure votes. Simultaneously, a legal challenge is casting a shadow over the Senate results in Alaska, potentially causing delays. President Donald Trump has also altered his campaign strategy, cancelling two weekend rallies in favor of phone-based campaigning. Here's a comprehensive overview of the latest developments.

What the Latest US Midterm Polls Indicate

According to RealClearPolling, Democrats hold a lead over Republicans by 51.4 percent to 43.2 percent, a margin of 8.2 percentage points. Charles Franklin, a professor of law and public policy and director of the Marquette Law School Poll, noted that declining approval ratings for President Trump and prevailing economic concerns are causing alarm among Republicans. A recent Marquette Law School poll, conducted in Wisconsin between October 14 and October 22 and released on October 28, showed Trump's approval rating at 37 percent, with disapproval at 61 percent. Only 16 percent of respondents reported being better off financially compared to a year prior, while 42 percent felt worse off, and another 42 percent indicated no change. Franklin observed, "Democrats are more enthusiastic and more certain they will vote. That is giving Democrats an important edge, and reflects Republican disappointment in current national conditions." In Arizona, where residents are grappling with rising living expenses, a retiree shared with Al Jazeera that the escalating cost of groceries is a significant worry. "We’re retired, and every time we go to the grocery store, it makes me wonder what the heck is going on," the voter stated.

In Texas, Democrat James Talarico is polling at 49 percent against Republican Ken Paxton's 43 percent, according to a CNN survey released on Thursday. Similarly, a poll in Michigan by the same organization found Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leading Republican Mike Rogers, 49 percent to 42 percent. However, Franklin cautioned, "Polls are not perfect predictions of outcomes. We could see those close races go either way, either due to polling errors or due to voters moving just a little more in one direction or the other."

Complications in Alaska's Senate Race

Adding a layer of complexity, Alaska's Senate race faces a potential delay due to a legal dispute that could impact the final results after ballots close on November 3. The core of the dispute involves two candidates named Dan Sullivan: the incumbent Republican senator and an independent candidate who shares the same name and is also registered as a Republican. President Trump has alleged that Democrats orchestrated the recruitment of the independent candidate to confuse voters and siphon support from the Republican incumbent, calling it "a scheme. It was an election fraud. Total election fraud." The Justice Department has initiated legal action regarding the dispute, while Democrat Mary Peltola has refuted the accusations, stating, "I feel like this is yet another diversion from the issue that Alaskans want to talk about, which is affordability." Al Jazeera's US correspondent Alan Fisher highlighted that this dispute could have ramifications beyond Alaska if control of the Senate hinges on its outcome. "If this becomes the key seat in the battle for the Senate, we might not actually know who has control there for several days, maybe even weeks after November 3," Fisher commented.

Campaign Trail Activities in the Last 24 Hours

President Trump traveled to South Carolina to support Republican Senator Darline Graham, sister of the late Lindsey Graham, in her closely contested race against Annie Andrews. In Rock Hill, Trump urged voters to cast their ballots and cautioned his supporters against complacency. He remarked that while Graham was leading, campaigning was still necessary, adding, "In politics you never know, right? So you got to get out and vote." He also asked the crowd to imagine he was on the ballot, stating, "And I am on the ballot because all of these things that we’ve done, all of these incredible successes that we have."

In Texas, Vice President JD Vance attended a rally in Weatherford, near Dallas, alongside Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, urging supporters to vote. Vance declared, "Texas ain’t surrendering. Texas is not becoming California. It’s going to stay Texas, ain’t that right?" Prominent Democrats have also been active on the campaign trail. On Wednesday, former President Barack Obama delivered a speech in Georgia endorsing Senator Jon Ossoff and criticizing President Trump's economic management and his approach to the war with Iran. When asked about Obama's visit, Ossoff's Republican opponent, Mike Collins, suggested it demonstrated "the desperation of Jon Ossoff because he knows he’s losing. If he was winning so big, he wouldn’t have brought anybody in."

Democrats also campaigned in Texas and Georgia on Thursday. In Dallas, Senate candidate James Talarico held a rally as part of his final campaign tour. Meanwhile, former Vice President Kamala Harris joined Ossoff at Clark Atlanta University, encouraging young people to vote. Harris also campaigned in Macon, Georgia, where she criticized the Trump administration for rising living costs, stating, "We have a moment now to turn pain into purpose." Harris urged supporters to participate in local and statewide contests and later, at Clark Atlanta University, encouraged students to remain engaged, emphasizing, "Don’t overlook those races, because those are the folks who make decisions about your life every day."

Upcoming Campaign Trail Events

President Trump has canceled scheduled appearances in Kansas and Iowa for the weekend, opting instead for telephone rallies across nearly 20 states in the final days before Tuesday's elections. Trump was slated to appear in Salina, Kansas, on Saturday and Dubuque, Iowa, on Sunday. Republican National Committee Chairman Joe Gruters explained that this shift would enable Trump to reach more voters than in-person events would allow, stating, "Voters across the country want to hear from President Trump before Election Day, and this 72-hour sprint will be a huge boost in the closing days." When questioned about the cancellations on Thursday, Trump expressed doubt about the necessity of traveling to Kansas, where Republican Senator Roger Marshall is facing Democrat Adam Hamilton. "I don’t feel I have to go to Kansas," Trump stated. He dismissed suggestions of travel fatigue, asserting, "I feel perfect," before making an insulting remark to a Reuters reporter. Trump is still scheduled to hold a rally in Daytona Beach, Florida, on Friday at 23:00 GMT. Concurrently, Harris is expected to address the Fulton County Democratic Party’s Fulton Forward dinner in Atlanta, Georgia. Vance's planned news conference with the White House Task Force to Eliminate Fraud in St. Cloud, Minnesota, on Friday was also canceled on Thursday, with no reason immediately provided.