Israel's Election Stalemate: Can Arab Parties Be the Key to Breaking the Political Deadlock?

Following Israel's recent election on October 27, which saw a high voter turnout of 77.9 percent, no clear victor has emerged, leading to widespread speculation about the formation of the next government. The Central Elections Committee (CEC) released the final results on Friday, confirming that neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc nor the opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot secured the necessary majority in the 120-member Knesset to form a government. Both leaders have also explicitly ruled out alliances with the United Arab List (Ra’am) and the Joint List, the two primary electoral lists representing Palestinian citizens of Israel. This situation presents a significant political deadlock.

All votes have been accounted for, including approximately 500,000 "double envelope" votes from soldiers and diplomats, which were counted on Thursday. These votes are cast using a system where an anonymous ballot is placed inside a second envelope containing personal details, ensuring voter secrecy while allowing verification against multiple voting.

The final tally shows Netanyahu’s bloc with 53 seats and Eisenkot’s opposition bloc with 48 seats. The United Arab List (Ra’am) and the Joint List collectively secured 19 seats. Forming a government in Israel typically requires a minimum of 61 seats, and historically, governing coalitions are formed through alliances, as no single party has ever achieved an outright majority.

The next steps involve political consultations for coalition formation. If these efforts fail, Israeli President Isaac Herzog has the authority to designate a candidate deemed most likely to form a government, granting them approximately 28 days, with a possible extension, to do so. Should this candidate also fail, a 21-day period commences where 61 Knesset members can petition Herzog to assign the task to another member. Ultimately, if all attempts to form a government are unsuccessful, Israelis may face a repeat election.

The role of Arab parties in potential coalitions remains a contentious issue. Many Israeli leaders, including Netanyahu, have publicly rejected partnerships with Arab-led parties. Netanyahu, in a post on X on Friday, stated, "It is forbidden to form a government with them," and his Likud party has accused these parties of election impropriety. Gadi Eisenkot has indicated that he would only consider partnering with parties that recognize Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, uphold the Declaration of Independence, and require all Israelis to perform national service, without specifying if Arab-led parties meet these criteria. Avigdor Lieberman, leader of Yisrael Beytenu, has also voiced opposition to certain coalitions, notably stating, "Neither Bibi nor Tibi."

The Arab parties have expressed interest in forming alliances with anti-Netanyahu factions. Yousef Jabareen of the Joint List has stated their readiness to "oust the Netanyahu government," advocating for a partnership based on equality and opposing racism. Political analyst Ahmed Najar suggests that Arab parties have demonstrated pragmatism, with Ra’am open to joining an Eisenkot-led government and the Joint List considering external support for a minority government contingent on significant commitments regarding equality and Palestinian community issues. However, Najar points out that the primary obstacle is not the Arab parties' pragmatism but the refusal of Eisenkot and some allies to recognize Palestinian citizens of Israel and their elected representatives as legitimate political partners, highlighting a democratic contradiction where votes are accepted but political legitimacy is questioned.

Analysts remain uncertain if Arab parties can resolve the deadlock, with numbers not adding up for any single side. Rumors suggest Eisenkot might seek Arab party support for a government investiture vote in exchange for community investments, though this is seen as unlikely and potentially opposed by figures like Lieberman. The likelihood of external support might increase if Eisenkot's