Israel's Election Deadlock: Four Potential Paths to Forming a Government

Following the final results of Israel's recent elections, the nation faces an extended period of political uncertainty as no clear victor has emerged. Neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party bloc nor the centrist bloc led by his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar party, has secured the necessary 61-seat majority in the 120-seat parliament to form a government. This leaves Israel in a political limbo that could last for weeks or even months.

Forming a new government appears to be a formidable challenge due to deep-seated political and ideological divisions that make even seemingly straightforward coalitions difficult to establish. While a fragile alliance might be possible, potentially lasting little more than a year, failure to reach an agreement within the allotted 12 weeks would inevitably lead to another election.

Here are some potential scenarios that could help Israel avoid a return to the polls:

Scenario 1: An Opposition Government

The opposition's most direct route to unseating Netanyahu theoretically involves cooperation between Jewish and Arab parties, which also presents its greatest hurdle. Key opposition leaders, former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and former Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, have expressed opposition to any government reliant on the support of the Joint List and Raam, two Arab parties in parliament. Their positions have hardened since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023. Historically, only one Israeli government has included full participation from an Arab party; Raam was part of a coalition that ousted Netanyahu in 2021 but dissolved after just over a year. Even without forming a government, opposition parties could collaborate to leverage their parliamentary majority to replace the Knesset speaker and other key officials, thereby limiting the authority of Netanyahu's caretaker government. However, assembling a coalition to replace him as leader remains a highly complex and politically charged endeavor.

Scenario 2: A National Unity Government

Another possibility involves the dissolution of the current blocs in favor of a national unity government. This would likely include Netanyahu's Likud party and some of its current coalition partners, crucially joined by at least one opposition party. While Netanyahu is reportedly willing to distance himself from far-right National Security Minister Ben-Gvir, he is expected to retain support from far-right Finance Minister Bezazel Smotrich and the ultra-Orthodox parties. Conversely, Eisenkot has explicitly ruled out serving alongside Netanyahu, and any change of heart would be viewed by many Israelis eager to see the end of 'Bibi's' tenure as a betrayal.

Scenario 3: A Netanyahu Bloc Government with Defectors

A further scenario envisions Netanyahu attempting to secure support by encouraging defections from opposition parties or individual lawmakers. However, all four opposition bloc party leaders—Eisenkot, Bennett, Liberman, and Yair Golan—have publicly stated they will not join forces with him. With Netanyahu's bloc falling short by eight seats, persuading eight individual defectors presents a significant challenge.

Scenario 4: Another Election

Amidst these discussions, Israeli President Isaac Herzog is set to initiate public consultations with the leaders of all parties that have gained representation in parliament. After gathering their input, he will designate one leader to attempt government formation. Given that Arab parties are expected to support Eisenkot, the Yashar leader may be given the first opportunity. The chosen leader will have 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension, to succeed. If this attempt fails, the president will task a second leader with the responsibility for another 28 days. Should a breakthrough still not occur, a majority of Knesset members can request the president to appoint a third candidate, who would then have 14 days to build a coalition. If none of these efforts yield a resolution, Israel will face another election. Netanyahu, as the caretaker prime minister, is strategically positioned to navigate this timeline. If his main rival, Eisenkot, attempts and fails to form a government, the mandate would likely pass to Netanyahu. If he also fails, the political deadlock would almost certainly compel Israel into yet another election, with Netanyahu continuing as caretaker for months until a new government is established. A repeat election, not expected before next spring, is a distinct possibility, as the current results point towards a prolonged state of political paralysis for Israel, potentially marking its seventh general election in eight years.