Israel's Coalition Conundrum: Arab Parties Back Eisenkot, Complicating Netanyahu's Path

In a significant development for Israeli politics, Arab parties, having secured a record 19 seats in the recent general elections, are reportedly set to support opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot's bloc. This move further diminishes Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's prospects of forming another government.

While the main Jewish opposition bloc, comprising four parties, did not achieve the 61 seats necessary for a Knesset majority, aligning with the two primary parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel could potentially avert a political stalemate and prevent another election. The "Change" opposition bloc has already committed to not partnering with Netanyahu, citing security lapses that preceded the October 7 Hamas attacks and his ongoing corruption trial.

However, securing support from Arab parties, whether through coalition membership or external backing, presents a challenge for Eisenkot. This is particularly true given the current political climate, where leaders and parties, including Netanyahu, have employed anti-Arab rhetoric to appeal to Jewish voters. Israel's Arab minority has historically faced political marginalization, a situation exacerbated since October 7. Several former Palestinian legislators and a current Knesset member have faced brief arrests for remarks or actions perceived as critical of Israel's actions in Gaza and the West Bank.

Analysts suggest that as these parties navigate potential paths to power, compromises and deviations from campaign promises may be inevitable.

Election Outcome:

Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud-led coalition of conservative and far-right parties secured 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, falling short of a majority. The opposition bloc, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot of the Yashar party, garnered 48 seats. The Arab-led Joint List and Ra’am achieved unprecedented success, with Ra’am winning eight seats and the Joint List securing eleven, fueled by a doubling of Arab voter turnout to approximately 80 percent.

Although the Arab bloc has expressed openness to working with the opposition, there were initial speculations about Eisenkot's reluctance to accept their support due to potential backlash from the broader Jewish Israeli public. Arabs constitute one-fifth of Israel's population. Only Ra’am has previously joined a governing coalition, in 2021, a government that lasted less than two years. Eisenkot and other opposition leaders had previously stated they would not form a coalition with Arab parties to appeal to their constituents.

Netanyahu's Stance:

Netanyahu has repeatedly, and without substantiation, accused Arab parties of electoral fraud with foreign assistance. His Likud party has pointed to isolated incidents, such as the arrests of three political activists suspected of voter bribery, allegedly linked to the Ra’am party, which denies any involvement. However, the credibility of these claims is weakening, as an Israeli court released one suspect and ordered another under house arrest. Israeli election officials have also affirmed the integrity of the vote. A video featuring Israel's election chief, attorney general, and head of the Shin Bet intelligence service suggested inter-agency cooperation to ensure the vote's validity. Noam Sohlberg, head of the Central Elections Committee, stated that even if suspicions were substantiated, they would not compromise the overall electoral process or results.

Netanyahu and Likud have also characterized any cooperation between the opposition bloc and Arab parties as treasonous, with Likud issuing a statement warning that Zionist parties collaborating with the Arab bloc would be "dangerous to Israel." This sentiment is shared by some Israelis, as evidenced by a protest outside Eisenkot's residence against a potential Jewish-Arab government.

Arab Parties' Support for Eisenkot:

Reports indicate that the Joint List and Ra’am intend to collaborate with the opposition bloc to oust Netanyahu, though not necessarily to join a governing coalition. Mansour Abbas of Ra’am has previously stated his willingness to join an Eisenkot government if his party is assigned the internal security portfolio. The presence of a Jewish lawmaker as his deputy is seen as a gesture towards the opposition. Yousef Jabareen of the Joint List expressed his party's readiness to cooperate with the "Change" bloc to remove Netanyahu and other "extremist" government members like Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. He clarified that the Joint List does not intend to join an Eisenkot government but would vote with it in the Knesset, potentially enabling Eisenkot to form a minority government with fewer than 61 seats.

It remains unclear what Eisenkot and his partners will decide next. The opposition bloc had previously set conditions for any coalition with Arab parties, including acceptance of Israel as a Jewish state, support for army conscription, and denunciation of Hamas as a terror group. Jabareen noted that these conditions are more pertinent for coalition partners, and as the occupation of their people in the West Bank continues, they cannot be part of a government.

What Lies Ahead:

Election results are scheduled for certification on Wednesday. Following this, President Isaac Herzog will commence meetings with the leaders of the 11 elected parties to determine their preferred candidate for prime minister. The president will then select the individual he believes has the best chance of forming a coalition government, likely either Netanyahu or Eisenkot. With Arab parties expected to name Eisenkot as their preferred partner, he may emerge as the frontrunner to receive Herzog's mandate. Both candidates will have 28 days to form a coalition, with a possible 14-day extension. If unsuccessful, Herzog may task another candidate. While unlikely, a unity government between Netanyahu and the opposition bloc remains a possibility, as does Netanyahu's attempt to sway at least eight members from the opposition bloc. Yashar has claimed that Likud has contacted several of its members, describing the party as being in a state of "hysteria." Regardless of coalition negotiations, parliamentarians will be sworn in on November 10.