Former White House Adviser Warns US Risks Empowering a 'Vengeful' Iran Against Gulf Allies

A senior adviser from the Joe Biden White House has cautioned that the United States risks leaving the Iranian regime "angry and vengeful," posing a persistent threat to its Gulf allies, unless the ongoing conflict is brought to a definitive conclusion. Amos Hochstein emphasized the necessity for the Donald Trump administration to pursue a negotiated settlement with Iran, warning that failure to do so could leave Gulf allies vulnerable.

These remarks, delivered in Abu Dhabi on Sunday, align with concerns voiced by Gulf states regarding the prolonged eight-month war. Hochstein, who supported President Trump's June 2025 strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities but opposed the current conflict, clarified his stance was not driven by sympathy for Tehran. "That is a horrible regime that has killed more Americans and supported those who kill Americans, let alone all the Muslims that they've killed and all the Arabs that they've killed in the region," he stated on Hadley Gamble's On the Record. He explained his opposition to the war stemmed from a lack of clarity regarding its objectives.

Hochstein warned that without a clear victory or a negotiated settlement, the outcome would be "a regime that is weakened but angry, vengeful, and one that has a long memory. And it may not act against us or our allies today or tomorrow, but they may not forget either." These comments reflect a critical stance Hochstein has adopted since departing the White House in January 2025.

Previously, in April, he predicted at a Semafor conference that Iran would maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz regardless of the war's outcome. Earlier this month, he informed Bloomberg Television that the conflict represented the Republicans' most significant vulnerability heading into Tuesday's midterm elections, suggesting an escalation might be more politically expedient after the vote. Days later, he told CNBC that he had "stopped understanding" the US strategy.

In Abu Dhabi, Hochstein argued that the American public is bearing the financial burden of the war through increased gasoline prices and the Pentagon budget. "We keep saying the Strait of Hormuz is open and oil is flowing. Well, oil is flowing with two aircraft carriers and a whole military apparatus that is enabling it, that is costing the American public billions," he said. "So the American public is now paying twice for every barrel or every gallon of gasoline or every piece of plastic. That's the reality." He also accused the Trump administration of concealing the war's impact on US forces, noting damaged bases without a shared damage assessment or photos being provided to the American public or their elected representatives. "We need to have that accounting of what this war is costing us."

Hochstein was particularly critical of Washington's response to the Houthi campaign against Saudi Arabia, which recently included missile strikes on Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport, resulting in at least 12 fatalities, including an American citizen. He suggested that while the US might not need to engage in direct war in Yemen, restoring deterrence was crucial. "Somehow that doesn't merit any reaction from the United States. But a war in Iran that was where we were not threatened at all, where we were not being targeted at all … somehow we did go into that. So I think the region is as confused as the American people are." He recalled the Saudi-Houthi truce during the Biden years, initially dismissed, which ultimately held for years. "I do think that Saudi [Arabia] has earned our support, not when they're attacking in Yemen, but when the Houthis are attacking in Saudi [Arabia]," he stated. "And civilians. I think that's a place where we should be drawing a line."

Addressing discussions of a potential US withdrawal from the Middle East, Hochstein expressed fundamental disagreement, worrying about the encroachment of isolationism from "the extremes on both sides and for different reasons."

Regarding the midterm elections, Hochstein, a Democrat, deemed a Democratic House victory "very likely," leading to divided government, which he views positively. He believes a Democratic House could exert influence through oversight and spending, even if not dictating foreign policy. "If the President's going to Congress and say, I need $1 trillion to fund this war, I think there'll be questions asked," he remarked, drawing a parallel to the Vietnam War and the Gulf of Tonkin incident.

On energy policy, he suggested Democrats would leverage their position to counter what he described as the administration's effective ban on new wind and solar power. "Our economy needs wind and solar. It is a cheaper form of energy that works well in the United States," he argued, noting that the Biden administration oversaw record oil and gas output alongside renewables deployment. He also commented on artificial intelligence, stating that the electricity costs for data centers are already a significant concern for consumers, and that technology companies "should be paying so that … the American public consumers are not paying one penny more for electricity and for other costs."

Hochstein expressed profound disappointment regarding Lebanon, where he had brokered a November 2024 ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. "There are few issues that really depress me more," he said. He noted that upon the Biden administration's departure, Israel had withdrawn from most captured territory, with a plan in place for Hezbollah's phased disarmament. "We abandoned that process," he lamented, attributing the failure to "this fantasy that things happen just because people say they do." He believes Lebanon's current president and prime minister are willing to act responsibly, but the failure lies with Washington. "I see the US approach as having failed," he stated, dismissing recent tripartite meetings as unproductive.

He blamed Hezbollah for violating the truce by disregarding a Lebanese government order to stay out of the US-Israeli war with Iran, a move the group claimed was retaliation for the killing of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. "If Hezbollah wants to avenge the death of an Iranian leader, they should go fight in Iran, not in Lebanon, and not drag the Lebanese people into this war," he asserted. "They're a parasite on the Lebanese people. They're a parasite on Lebanon." He cautioned, however, that the Lebanese army alone could not disarm the group, as Hezbollah is "too weak to fight Israel, but it is strong enough to fight Lebanon." His proposed solution involved agreeing on the land border, a phased Israeli withdrawal as the Lebanese army assumes control under US military coordination, followed by pushing Hezbollah out of the south before disarmament. He suggested a US-led force, including troops from the UK, France, Italy, Germany, and Indonesia, embedded with the Lebanese army, as an alternative to UN peacekeepers. He insisted that demanding Hezbollah's disarmament before any Israeli withdrawal plays directly into the group's hands, stating, "As long as they don't disarm, this conflict continues." This position mirrors his April warning that Tehran had no role in shaping Lebanon's future. However, he offered a conciliatory note in Abu Dhabi, expressing hope for the Trump administration's success on this issue: "If it's the right moves, I will cheerlead for it."

Regarding Syria, Hochstein supported the administration's backing of President Ahmad Al Shara, while advising caution due to Al Shara's past. When asked about trusting him, Hochstein replied, "Maybe even less trust." Nevertheless, he considered Al Shara "our best shot at giving the Syrians a way back to normalcy." He refuted the regional perception that the US has lost its influence, citing Israel's withdrawal from 98% of Lebanese territory two years prior as an example. "You can criticise the US, and I criticise the current US policy, but there is no alternative," Hochstein concluded. "I still think the United States has a lot of power to do good here, and I hope it does."