Black Sea Becomes Deadliest Waterway Amid Escalating Russian Drone Attacks on Shipping

At least a dozen merchant ships have been struck by Russian drones in the Black Sea in recent weeks, resulting in more mariner casualties than the Iran war. Russia's objective is to disrupt trade through Ukrainian ports, which are crucial for exporting the country's grain. Disturbingly, some of these attacks have occurred perilously close to or within the territorial waters of NATO members Romania and Bulgaria.

This Russian campaign follows months of Ukrainian strikes on vessels using Russian ports in the Black Sea and the adjacent Sea of Azov, with the intensity escalating over the past month. Shipping and security sources indicate that Russia has employed a combination of maritime and aerial drones, including recently developed, faster jet-powered drones capable of targeting moving vessels, making interception more challenging.

Maritime tracking services and the governments of Romania and Bulgaria report that at least 30 mariners have been killed or are currently missing due to this surge in attacks. In a recent incident, three drones struck the container ship Contship Jet as it approached a Romanian port. A French surveillance plane captured footage of a surface drone targeting the vessel, which was later seen listing heavily before sinking approximately 25 kilometers from the Bulgarian coast.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha has characterized the increased attacks as transforming the Black Sea into a "zone of danger for civilian shipping." Russia had already intensified missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian Black Sea ports, notably Odesa, throughout the summer. Consequently, Ukraine's wheat exports in September significantly decreased to 1.09 million tons from 2.05 million tons the previous year, according to government figures. Efforts to reroute exports through smaller Danube River ports, bordering Romania, have also been met with Russian drone attacks.

The surge in attacks began in early October with the Turkish-owned Alfa Watan, en route from Egypt to the Romanian port of Sulina, being hit by air and naval drones. This resulted in the deaths of nine Syrian crew members and one Egyptian, and the ship subsequently sank. Six days later, 11 crew members, mostly Syrian, perished when the HS Dignity was struck off the Bulgarian coast at night. A Syrian seafarers' activist, Mohammad Hajjouz, recounted that after the initial strike on the Dignity, the crew observed an approaching unmanned surface vessel that then impacted the ship. Survivors struggled to launch lifeboats, and those who did were separated in the rough, cold sea.

Despite the escalating risks, some shipping firms continue to operate in the Black Sea. Hajjouz explained that economic pressures and the allure of additional pay compel sailors to accept work in dangerous areas, while others are driven by limited employment opportunities. On October 15, four more merchant ships were targeted, with eight lives lost, including incidents within Romanian territorial waters and its exclusive economic zone, according to Romanian Foreign Minister Oana-Silvia Toiu. The chemical tankers Wine Trader and Yara J caught fire after being struck near the Sulina Canal, which connects the Black Sea to the Danube. Six Beninese and one Russian national on the Wine Trader were killed, with its operator reporting it was hit by three drones.

Maritime analysts at Ambrey noted that Russian forces are targeting vessels linked to Ukrainian trade, even within the exclusive economic zones of NATO member states Romania and Bulgaria, suggesting these waters should no longer be considered safe by default. Ambrey indicated that several vessels were likely targeted due to their connection with Ukrainian grain exports.

Moscow has not claimed responsibility for all attacks, but the Russian Ministry of Defense has asserted that targeted vessels were carrying "military and dual-use cargo" for the Ukrainian armed forces.

The European response has been varied. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that the alliance has enhanced its posture along the eastern flank due to the encroaching Russian attacks. Bulgaria, maintaining relatively stable relations with Moscow, has been hesitant to directly blame Russia, but both Bulgaria and Romania are reportedly bolstering their defenses. Bulgaria has requested NATO deploy combat aircraft and anti-drone systems, and is expected to join a NATO anti-drone initiative. Romania has deployed F-16 jet patrols along its coast, with one successfully shooting down two advanced Russian drones over its territorial waters in late October. Romania is also accelerating the development of surveillance capabilities to counter maritime threats.

However, these measures have not fully reassured shippers, leading to a sharp decline in traffic to Ukrainian ports and a significant increase in insurance rates. The Joint War Committee expanded its definition of "high-risk" areas to encompass the entire Black Sea region, excluding the territorial waters of Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, and Georgia.

The heightened insurance premiums pose a threat to Ukraine's crucial agricultural exports, which largely transit the Black Sea. Ukraine is a major global supplier of maize, wheat, and sunflower oil. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul emphasized the Black Sea's vital role in global food security, stating that Russia has targeted freedom of navigation and a lifeline for many.

The Trump administration has attributed blame to both sides for the shipping attacks. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio mentioned reports from American companies about their oil being on ships hit by Ukraine, while also suggesting Ukraine may not have intentionally targeted them. According to Dimitar Bechev, director of the Dahrendorf Programme at St Antony’s College at Oxford, NATO and Black Sea states need to develop anti-drone defenses and strengthen NATO's presence in Romania and Bulgaria. Bechev also suggested that Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria could do more to enforce freedom of navigation.

David Axe, author of the Trench Art blog on the Ukraine conflict, commented that Russia and Ukraine are engaging in retaliatory attacks without achieving lasting advantages, rendering much of the Black Sea perilous for commercial vessels.