Iran Welcomes US Midterm Results as Blow to Trump, but Warns of Potential Escalation

Iranian authorities have interpreted the significant midterm election losses for United States President Donald Trump’s Republican Party as a clear message from the American public against a war with Iran. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stated, “Conscience or the cost of living, Americans said NO TO WAR, and we endorse this message.” He further warned on his X account, “If the US [government] betrays their public will to serve international paymasters and blackmailers, it will learn our NO comes with a Nightmare.” The head of the Iranian judiciary, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, declared, “Trump was defeated in both war and politics” and vowed that the Islamic Republic would inflict further defeats. Analysts suggest that the Democratic victories, which present challenges for Trump’s remaining term, will likely strengthen Iran’s resolve in demanding an end to the conflict initiated by the US and Israel on February 28. While Trump has discussed potential attacks on Iran, he has not yet made a decision, even as the country faces significant pressure from a US naval blockade, sanctions, and trade disruptions.

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, noted that while the Republican Party's electoral defeat might increase pressure to end the Iran war, it does not eliminate the possibility of further strikes. “He needs a diplomatic victory or at worst an off-ramp, yet in the face of defeat he may be reluctant to appear weak,” she informed Al Jazeera. Hamidreza Azizi, a senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, believes that the perceived victory by Iranian decision-makers will likely make them less willing to compromise on their core demands. These demands include seven conditions for the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a requirement for the US to make the initial move. Azizi added, “The likelihood of Iran making concessions on the nuclear issue could also become even lower than before.”

Wednesday also marked the anniversary of the 1979 seizure of the US embassy in Tehran, an event that initiated a hostage crisis and shaped US-Iran relations for decades. In commemoration, Iranian authorities organized demonstrations and speeches near the former embassy and in other downtown areas, denouncing US-led “global arrogance.” Similar state-organized events took place in Bandar Abbas, Mashhad, Qom, and other cities, with state television broadcasting pro-government activities for schoolchildren. A statement attributed to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei asserted, “Now, the stage of the Persian Gulf, especially the Strait of Hormuz, has invalidated the myth of American invincibility.” Khamenei, who has been out of public view since becoming supreme leader in early March, argued that those hoping for changes in US policy or concessions would be “harshly mistaken” in believing it would end the enmity towards Iran. He emphasized that achieving “absolute deterrence” requires pursuing strength.

In Tehran’s Enghelab Square, a large billboard featuring Trump behind prison bars was unveiled, bearing the message, “We will kill Trump.” State-linked media closely monitored the US elections, celebrating significant losses for hawkish Republicans. The reformist Sazandegi newspaper’s headline read, “Trump’s nightmare,” alongside a full-page image of Abdul El-Sayed, who became the first Muslim senator and had criticized the pro-Israel AIPAC lobby in his victory speech.

Looking ahead, Iran and the US continue to vie for control in and around the Strait of Hormuz, with the Trump administration also employing a blockade and economic pressure on Iran. Vakil anticipates intensified diplomacy coupled with ongoing military threats in the coming weeks, with limited military strikes remaining a possibility. “An interim agreement over the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the blockade appears more realistic than a comprehensive settlement,” she commented. Barbara Slavin, a distinguished fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington, expressed concern that Trump might use his “lame duck” period to launch attacks against Iran. “Trump still retains enormous powers as commander-in-chief, especially before the new Congress is seated,” Slavin told Al Jazeera, though she believes the significant Democratic victory makes all-out war less probable. “It is clear that the war and the resulting economic crisis defeated the Republicans,” she concluded.