Trump's Midterm Setback: Global Ripples for Iran, Israel, and Ukraine

The recent US midterm elections carry potential consequences that extend far beyond America's borders. President Donald Trump, who has spent nearly two years reshaping decades of American foreign policy and creating uncertainty among allies and adversaries alike, now faces scrutiny as global players observe how his electoral challenges at home might influence his international actions. For Iran, Israel, and Ukraine, the outcomes of these elections hold significant weight, potentially impacting Trump's approach to a deal with Tehran, the extent of Washington's support for Israel, and the pressure on Kyiv to resolve the conflict with Russia.

While Democrats may gain new avenues to challenge Trump, he retains considerable latitude in foreign policy. This leaves world leaders pondering whether a domestic setback will foster a more compromising stance or a more resolute pursuit of his objectives. The following outlines how the vote could affect Washington's key foreign policy concerns:

Iran: A Mix of Celebration and Apprehension

Iran is reportedly celebrating Trump's midterm setback but is also preparing for potential future actions, including a possible new US strike or a renewed push for a deal. Trump himself acknowledged in a call with Fox News that the war in Iran played a part in the Republican losses, a sentiment echoed by Vice President JD Vance, who stated on X that "the reason we lost is the war." Tehran has interpreted the Republican loss as a public repudiation of the war, which had been used to target the region's economy for eight months.

Despite the perceived public verdict, Iran is not banking on a significant shift in US policy. Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has cautioned against assuming the results will alter US policy, and officials indicate that Iran's strategy remains focused on preparing for further conflict while intensifying diplomatic efforts. The risk of escalation is palpable, with reports of Trump considering intensified strikes fueling regional anxiety. Tehran has warned of a broader retaliatory response than seen previously. Trump has reportedly sent mixed signals to journalists regarding immediate escalation plans.

Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group suggests that the Iran war has become a political burden for Trump, forcing a choice between a face-saving deal or a military escalation. The concern is that a weakened president might seek validation on the battlefield. However, diplomacy presents an alternative path, with stalled talks reportedly gaining momentum through Qatari mediation. Iran has previously offered to open the Strait of Hormuz under specific conditions. Sanam Vakil of Chatham House believes that while Iran's leadership may feel vindicated, their underlying problems persist. Trump's need for a diplomatic win might clash with his reluctance to appear weak, potentially leading Tehran to seek greater concessions. Vakil anticipates a period of intensified diplomacy coupled with military threats, with an interim deal regarding the Strait of Hormuz being more plausible than a comprehensive agreement.

Israel: An 'End of an Era' for US Relations

The midterm election day brought a surprise announcement regarding Trump's potential abrupt cessation of US military aid to Israel, a development that, coupled with the Democratic sweep of Congress, has created significant concern in Israel. Bipartisan support for Israel in the US had been diminishing, with Democrats expressing outrage over the Gaza war casualties and a growing number of Republicans questioning the extent of US support.

Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the US, described criticism of Israel as a unifying issue for both the Democratic and Republican parties. He suggested that the suspension of US aid could be the beginning of a broader shift, potentially including the end of intelligence sharing and joint military system development, such as the Iron Dome. Oren declared, "We are at the end of an era." Yaakov Katz, former editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post, warned that the military aid announcement is merely the precursor to further changes, including potential blockages of arms sales, proposed sanctions, and defunding of joint economic programs.

Anti-Israel sentiment has reportedly intensified due to the Iran war, with segments of the US electorate viewing joint US-Israel strikes as a war promoted by Netanyahu to Trump. Netanyahu himself faces domestic political challenges, having lost his parliamentary majority prior to the midterms. His rival, Gadi Eisenkot, also lacks a clear majority and would likely need to collaborate with Arab parties. Yair Golan, leader of the left-wing Democrats party, has urged Israel to act swiftly to replace Netanyahu and steer the country away from sanctions and isolation.

Ukraine: Hope for a Post-Trump Landscape

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is reportedly hopeful that a Democratic victory will strengthen American support for Ukraine's defense against Russia's ongoing war. Zelensky has expressed gratitude to Republicans but highlighted the Democrats' clear stance on supporting Ukraine and reinforcing ties between the US and Europe. He believes this could lead to a restored balance of power and increased assistance.

Zelensky's relationship with Trump has reportedly deteriorated, with Trump allegedly demanding Zelensky's replacement and pursuing energy deals potentially benefiting Russia, while hindering Ukraine's technological and intelligence dependencies on the US. Consequently, Kyiv has been anticipating a post-Trump era. While official comments from Kyiv were initially subdued, there was a sense of relief, with some officials pledging to maintain stable relations with any US administration and pursue necessary military equipment. The prospect of a weakened Trump is seen as favorable to Ukraine.

Trump's claims of an easy peace have been contrasted with his actions, which have included punishing Ukraine for not yielding to Russian demands and creating friction with European allies. Ukraine still requires significant support from the US, including arms and financial aid. However, months of perceived hostility have led Kyiv to question its reliance on Washington. A potential downside is that Russian President Vladimir Putin might perceive a limited window of opportunity to achieve his war aims before a potential shift in US policy in 2028.