Europe on Alert: Russia and Iran Suspected in Coordinated 'Grey-Zone Warfare' Targeting Critical Infrastructure

As wartime pressures mount in Europe, citizens are being warned of an escalating campaign of sabotage targeting vital infrastructure and everyday services, mirroring tactics seen in Ukraine. Peter Watkins, a former senior Ministry of Defence official now with the Chatham House think tank, indicated that civilian sites are increasingly likely to become targets.

Concerns are growing that Russia and Iran may be collaborating to destabilize the continent, evidenced by a series of recent incidents including cyber attacks on supermarket meat freezers, hoax bomb threats against airlines, and an attempted breach of a French blood bank. "If Russia is behind these attacks on the freezers then it’s a softer version of what they've been doing in Ukraine over the last few months, which is deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure in order to make life difficult for the civilian population," Mr. Watkins stated. "The food supply chains would seem to be an obvious place for them to look."

These cyber attacks, which affected supermarkets and refrigerated containers used by the French national blood service, highlight how hostile states are exploiting perceived weaknesses in critical supply chains. Megan Sutcliffe, a senior analyst at intelligence consultancy Sibylline, described this as a significant escalation of "grey-zone warfare," aimed at eroding public trust in governments. "We're seeing an intensification of grey zone attacks and a real effort by countries hostile to Europe to undermine confidence in security, to disrupt the operational environment and basically make everyday life harder, so that public support for hostility to those countries decreases."

British officials have acknowledged an increase in hybrid warfare activities and pledged to counter such infiltration. The Foreign Office defined such actions as "Overt or covert actions by foreign governments that fall short of direct armed conflict but go beyond legitimate diplomacy and expected statecraft, harm or threaten the safety and interests of the UK or our allies." Dr. Lynette Nusbacher, a former intelligence officer, characterized the willingness of hostile states to employ cyber attacks as a "very well thought-out and very prepared programme of achieving incremental advantage.”

The targeting of supermarket refrigeration systems is particularly notable, demonstrating the exploitation of non-violent technology for widespread disruption. "The attacks on freezers is really quite innovative in terms of grey-zone hostilities and we should expect a similarly innovative approach when it comes to targeting critical national infrastructure," Ms. Sutcliffe added. The impact has been significant, with large quantities of meat spoiled across countries from Ireland to Finland, and hackers also manipulating defrosting settings at three French blood plasma storage facilities.

In response, governments across Europe are advising citizens to stockpile essential supplies, including food, batteries, camping stoves, and water, alongside wind-up radios, in preparation for potential major disruptions. Incidents described as "below the threshold of war" have also included the use of drones to disrupt civil airports, an issue Germany has particularly faced, alongside the aforementioned bomb threats targeting European airlines on November 3.

Oana Popescu-Zamfir, head of European security at the Rusi think tank, suggested that Russia has already identified and could exploit weaknesses in European resilience at short notice. "If you manage to disrupt the port infrastructure, which has been attempted in the Black Sea, then you can seriously affect the food security of the UK," she noted. These attacks are viewed as part of a sustained Russian effort to diminish European support for Ukraine, particularly as Moscow faces battlefield challenges.

"The implicit message is this: if you continue to support Ukraine, then you will be facing instability and you will be insecure everywhere at home," Ms. Popescu-Zamfir explained. The possibility of sabotage networks and sleeper cells, potentially activated by Russia and Iran, is also a serious concern. "Intelligence services have been warning about the existence of Russian sleeper cells in Europe and this has been starting to materialise," she added.

Iran's motivation to escalate cyber operations could be amplified by potential further attacks on its energy sites by the US and Israel, especially following the US midterm elections. Iran has reportedly used social media to recruit individuals, offering cryptocurrency payments to target Jewish, Israeli, or American interests in Europe. Ms. Popescu-Zamfir cautioned that European governments should anticipate a sustained campaign of attacks rather than isolated events. "Before facing any sort of conventional attack in Europe, we are very likely going to face a sustained series of what are still called hybrid attacks," she predicted, targeting critical infrastructure, shipping, or rail transport.

Ms. Sutcliffe also highlighted the increasing likelihood of "strategic co-ordination" between Moscow and Tehran, stating, "There's an alignment in Iran and Russia's interests at this point in time and that is to disrupt the West, undermine cohesion, and undermine the relationship between Europe and America."