ANC Faces Steep Decline in South African Local Elections, Potentially Losing Key Cities

Early results from South Africa's municipal elections indicate a significant drop in the African National Congress's (ANC) vote share, jeopardizing its long-held control over major urban centers like Johannesburg. As of late Thursday, with over 60 percent of votes tallied, the ANC stood at approximately 32 percent, trailed by the Democratic Alliance (DA) at 25 percent. The newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, founded by former President Jacob Zuma, secured third place with 8.5 percent, falling short of pre-election poll predictions.

The electoral commission reported that approximately 15.9 million out of 29.2 million registered voters participated, resulting in an estimated turnout of 54.5 percent, an increase from the 46 percent recorded in the 2021 municipal elections, which were impacted by the pandemic.

The ANC, which has governed South Africa since the end of apartheid in 1994, has historically performed less strongly in local elections compared to national polls and has openly admitted to shortcomings in municipal governance. Its national vote share has declined from nearly 70 percent in 2004 to below 50 percent for the first time in the 2021 municipal elections (46 percent). In the 2024 national elections, the ANC garnered just over 40 percent, necessitating the formation of a unity government with nine other parties, including the DA.

Under the leadership of President Cyril Ramaphosa, the ANC has faced widespread criticism for years of municipal mismanagement, which has led to issues such as failing water infrastructure, persistent power outages, and deteriorating public services. The party has also been entangled in corruption allegations, while smaller parties have eroded its voter base.

The outcomes of the current local elections are seen as a crucial barometer of public sentiment ahead of the 2029 general election. Control of South Africa's eight largest metropolitan municipalities, along with numerous district and local councils, is at stake.

The MK party had been projected to potentially win an outright majority in the coastal city of Durban. However, projections from the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) suggest its support in Durban may reach only 32 percent. Meanwhile, the DA is expected to maintain its hold on Cape Town, a popular tourist destination, with an estimated 56 percent of the vote, according to CSIR projections. The DA's leader, Geordin Hill-Lewis, has already claimed victory. In Johannesburg, the nation's financial hub, the DA was leading with 34 percent, following a vigorous campaign led by former party leader Helen Zille, 75, as indicated by CSIR forecasts.

With outright majorities not guaranteed in several key cities, the election results could trigger further complex coalition negotiations as parties seek to form governing alliances. The final results are anticipated on Sunday.