Turkey Not Concerned by Syria-Iraq Oil Pipeline, Energy Minister Asserts

Turkey has indicated it does not object to the repair of an oil pipeline connecting Iraq and Syria, which could offer Baghdad an alternative export route to the Strait of Hormuz. Alparslan Bayraktar, Turkey’s Minister of Energy and Natural Resources, stated during a press briefing in Istanbul that Ankara is "not afraid" of the Kirkuk to Baniyas pipeline, addressing concerns that it might compete with existing export routes via Turkey. He dismissed such notions, emphasizing that there is sufficient market capacity for all.

Iraq and Syria entered into an agreement in July to restore the 800km Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline. Originally operational in 1952 with a capacity of 300,000 barrels per day, the pipeline has been inactive for decades, ceasing operations after the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq.

The recent agreement aligns with a broader regional effort to establish alternative crude oil export routes, particularly given the disruptions to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz due to the US-Iran conflict. With its southern ports facing limitations, Iraq has been increasingly relying on overland transport via lorries to Turkey's pipeline network and has also sought Syria's assistance for crude transportation by land.

A functional pipeline through Syria could provide a more efficient export method for crude from Iraq's Kirkuk region to the Mediterranean coast at Baniyas, potentially reducing Iraq's dependence on the Strait of Hormuz. Minister Bayraktar noted that Turkey's existing route to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan is more cost-effective and stable, suggesting that Turkey's capacity could be increased from 1.5 million to 2.5 million barrels per day, while the Syrian route could handle an additional 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day.

Despite the potential, the Kirkuk-Baniyas pipeline traverses regions in the Iraqi and Syrian deserts known to be frequented by ISIS cells, raising security concerns. Analysts anticipate that the pipeline's repair will be a lengthy and costly process, likely requiring billions of dollars and several years to complete. Factors such as sanctions on the former Assad regime and ongoing instability in Iraq and Syria have historically hindered the necessary financing and international investment for such reconstruction projects.

Turkey's primary export route to the Mediterranean port of Ceyhan is connected to Iraq via the Iraq-Turkey Pipeline (ITP), which has a capacity of 1.5 million barrels per day on the Turkish side, though it has been reported as underutilized on the Iraqi side. Exports through the ITP were halted in March 2023 for two and a half years following an arbitration ruling against Turkey for breaching a treaty related to exports from the Kurdistan region. Operations resumed after agreements were reached between Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and international oil companies. The ITP treaty between Baghdad and Ankara recently expired, with current crude exports governed by an extension deal.

Minister Bayraktar also outlined Turkey's energy strategy up to 2040, which includes expanding nuclear energy, electrification, and renewable sources to cut carbon emissions by 40%, ensure energy security, and navigate global crises. He acknowledged the necessity of coal for supply security and contractual obligations, despite environmental criticisms. Turkey aims to attract $1 trillion in public and private investment for its energy goals, seeking funding from Gulf nations and Western financial institutions.

Addressing climate change, Minister Bayraktar will emphasize the urgency of meeting the 1.5C global warming target at the upcoming Cop 31 summit in Antalya. He noted the US's current political stance on climate action, suggesting a lack of commitment compared to other nations.