US Strikes Iran's Qeshm Island Amid Escalating Tensions and Mediation Efforts in Strait of Hormuz

Following targeted attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States has conducted strikes on Iran, as international mediators work to avert a wider conflict between the two nations. On Friday night, two projectiles impacted Iran’s Qeshm Island, marking the latest in a series of air strikes targeting Iranian air defence systems and launchers on the southern island in recent weeks. President Donald Trump described these actions as “minor strikes,” amidst growing concerns over a potential escalation of hostilities.

In the early hours of Saturday, Iran’s army announced the destruction of a US-made MQ-9 drone using a newly developed, unnamed system. Separately, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed on Friday that its air defences had intercepted an MQ-1 drone, reportedly the 16th of its model to be destroyed since the conflict began. According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), at least 11 ships were attacked in and around the Strait of Hormuz during the week ending November 6, with three of them sinking. The Western military intelligence agency has documented 88 projectile strikes since hostilities resumed in early July, noting that many attacks likely go unreported. UKMTO’s weekly report also indicated 170 outbound and 155 inbound transits in the Strait of Hormuz, a significant decrease of approximately 65 percent from pre-conflict levels. Many vessels with active transponders are utilizing the northern Iranian route, while numerous ships are opting for the southern route near Oman with their tracking systems offline to transport oil.

Iranian armed forces have also stated that tankers and commercial vessels using “unauthorised” routes risk being struck by naval mines, in addition to missile and drone attacks. The Iranian military’s naval force reported on Saturday that a tanker, with its transponder deactivated, caught fire in the eastern Strait of Hormuz after striking a mine. Washington has asserted that these mines have been cleared.

The IRGC had previously maintained a self-imposed limit on the range of its ballistic missiles to approximately 2,000 kilometers (1,240 miles) to assure European nations of their safety. However, with President Trump threatening renewed air strikes on Iran’s civilian infrastructure, commanders have indicated that no limits now apply. “This limitation has been lifted for us,” IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi stated to reporters on Saturday, referring to missile range constraints. These remarks followed an order from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei for an unrestrained military response to any future threats from Israel and the US. Mohebbi added that Iran’s aerospace division of the IRGC has prepared “surprising defence achievements” for deployment if another wave of major attacks commences, which he claimed would not only surprise enemies but also strengthen Iran’s military standing globally and neutralize aggressors’ calculations. The IRGC also plans to unveil another underground “missile city” soon and display combat systems publicly for inspection. Mohebbi further commented that preparations would be made if the Islamic Republic decided to alter its nuclear doctrine and pursue nuclear weapon development.

On the state television programme Be Vaght-e Iran (At Iran’s Time), presenters and analysts suggested that Iranian armed forces are prepared for action, with a particular focus on movements from Israel. An analyst stated, “Our military information about the strategic chokepoints of Israel is complete. If our water, electricity and natural gas is cut off, they will also be plunged into darkness and lack of water. This is not a bluff, but a serious warning.”

Diplomatic efforts by mediators to prevent regional damage have intensified in recent weeks, albeit with limited success. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reported on Saturday that he had engaged in discussions with 12 foreign ministers over the preceding 48 hours, including senior diplomats from Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan. He outlined Tehran’s “fundamental positions,” including seven demands for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and emphasized the necessity of establishing “regional security arrangements without the interference of superregional powers.” Security chief Mohsen Rezaei reportedly conveyed similar conditions to Russian President Vladimir Putin during a visit to Moscow on Thursday, which also served to deliver a message from Khamenei.

Political analyst Mostafa Najafi, reportedly close to Iran’s security chief, described the situation between Iran and the US as a “constant pendulum swing between war and negotiations” that is increasingly tilting towards conflict. He noted, “What is clear for now is that the movement of this pendulum will continue; a conflict whose ending is much more complicated and time-consuming than imagined.” Najafi suggested that the recent midterm election results for Trump and the Republicans could further complicate the situation.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, identified three factors that heighten the risk of war in the short term following the elections, unless a diplomatic breakthrough occurs. Parsi explained that the political cost associated with high fuel prices, largely attributed to the conflict with Iran, has already been absorbed, and there is no immediate political event on the horizon that would compel Trump to prioritize this issue. “On the one hand, the pressure to get a deal will dissipate,” Parsi told Al Jazeera. He also anticipates a significant increase in pressure from pro-war factions, as their ability to escalate the conflict may be curtailed once Democrats assume control of Congress in early January. The appointment of Stephen Miller, a far-right, pro-Israel hawk, as chief of staff suggests that Trump may not be inclined to de-escalate the conflict. Parsi concluded, “Finally, there is a new psychological element to Trump’s mindset following this humiliation: Trump’s desire for vengeance. There has been a vindictive element to his calculations in the past weeks because of his anger over how Iran – in Trump’s mind – has ruined his presidency.”