Rival Gadi Eisenkot Tapped to Form Israeli Government, Ousting Netanyahu, But Path Fraught with Obstacles

In a significant development that marks a setback for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his primary rival, Gadi Eisenkot, is set to be tasked with forming the next Israeli government. This move brings Eisenkot, a retired military chief and leader of the centrist Yashar party, one step closer to potentially unseating Israel's longest-serving leader, although the path forward remains complex.

Eisenkot will have a six-week window to attempt to assemble a coalition capable of replacing Netanyahu. However, his ascent is complicated by numerous political hurdles and internal divisions within the opposition itself. President Isaac Herzog is scheduled to officially grant Eisenkot the mandate to form a government on Sunday, following consultations with all elected parties in the Knesset.

Eisenkot secured the backing of 67 members of the incoming Knesset, including 19 from two Arab parties, while Netanyahu garnered only 46 recommendations. A notable shift occurred when United Torah Judaism, a traditional Netanyahu ally, opted not to recommend him during the consultations.

Despite this, Herzog's decision does not immediately remove Netanyahu from power. Eisenkot possesses a theoretical parliamentary majority but has yet to form a concrete governing coalition. He aims to establish a "national emergency government" and potentially a minority government swiftly.

This proposed government would consist of the four Jewish opposition parties: Yashar, Together (led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid), Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Beiteinu, and the left-wing Democrats (led by Yair Golan). These parties collectively hold 48 seats. Eisenkot has outlined four conditions for participation: recognition of Israel as a Jewish, democratic, liberal, and egalitarian state; adherence to the values of the Declaration of Independence; universal service (military, national, or civilian); and the designation of Hamas as a terrorist organization. The last condition effectively excludes Arab parties from cabinet positions, though they could offer external parliamentary support.

Israeli law requires a simple majority to form a government, but removing an existing one necessitates an absolute majority of 61 votes. A key obstacle for Eisenkot is Avigdor Liberman, who has expressed opposition to any government reliant on Arab parties. Liberman argues that a minority government would be unstable and ultimately benefit Netanyahu. He has proposed an alternative: forming a coalition of 61 lawmakers with the two ultra-Orthodox parties, Shas and United Torah Judaism, excluding the Joint List and Ra'am. Liberman also suggested that some Likud members might defect to such a coalition.

This alternative plan conflicts with a core opposition commitment to end the draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox men, a stance strongly opposed by the ultra-Orthodox parties. Furthermore, one of these parties remains loyal to Netanyahu.

Netanyahu, having lost his parliamentary majority, is actively pressuring against any Jewish-Arab political cooperation. He is contesting the election results, alleging fraud by Arab parties. His loyalist Shin Bet director, David Zini, is reportedly investigating Arab politicians without public evidence. Netanyahu has warned that a minority government supported by Arab parties would endanger Israel's survival and has called for a national unity government with his bloc.

Eisenkot has dismissed Netanyahu's warnings as "pathetic spin." The Yashar party stated that if Likud desires a unity government, it should dissolve its alliance with "extremists" and join a government led by Eisenkot.

Eisenkot's initial challenge will be on Tuesday with the swearing-in of the new Knesset, where the opposition plans to replace Netanyahu's Knesset speaker. This move would weaken Netanyahu's authority and enable the opposition to initiate actions, such as forming a state commission of inquiry into the security failures preceding the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack.

Starting Sunday, Eisenkot has 28 days, with a possible 14-day extension, to negotiate coalition agreements. If he fails, the mandate will pass to Netanyahu for another four weeks. Eisenkot has expressed his intention to form a government rapidly, emphasizing the urgency of the situation and the danger posed by a caretaker prime minister in the minority continuing to control security and law enforcement.