ANC Faces Significant Setback in Local Elections, Weakening Coalition Prospects

South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) party is grappling with a significant setback following the recent municipal elections, leaving it in a precarious position for coalition talks aimed at forming city governments. As of Sunday, with 99 percent of votes tallied, President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC secured 31 percent of the national vote. This places them ahead of their primary rival, the Democratic Alliance (DA), which garnered 25 percent. This result marks a substantial decline of approximately 14 percentage points compared to the ANC's performance in the 2021 local elections.

The uMkhonto weSizwe party, founded by former President Jacob Zuma, emerged in third place with around 10 percent of the votes. The remaining ballots were distributed among hundreds of smaller political entities. The final election results are slated for announcement on Sunday at 6pm (16:00 GMT).

Despite remaining the largest party in South Africa, the ANC has witnessed a consistent erosion of its support base. This decline is attributed to growing voter frustration over corruption and the party's inability to effectively address unemployment, which stands at over 34 percent, more than three decades after the end of apartheid. Furthermore, persistent failures in providing basic services, such as water and electricity, have contributed to the ANC's diminishing vote share in local elections over the past 15 years. Notably, the party failed to secure an outright majority in any of the eight major metropolitan areas, including Johannesburg and Pretoria.

With no single party achieving more than 50 percent of the vote in numerous cities, including Johannesburg, South Africa's commercial hub, the ANC and DA are compelled to negotiate either with each other or with smaller parties to establish municipal governments. Parties have a 14-day window to finalize these negotiations before the city councils are officially formed.

ANC Secretary-General Fikile Mbalula described the election outcome as “catastrophic” for the party but asserted that the ANC would not seek positions out of desperation during the upcoming coalition talks. “When the people tell us we have fallen short, … the honest answer is not to argue with them but to go home and put our house in order,” Mbalula stated on Saturday.

In Johannesburg, the DA held a lead in the vote count with approximately 35 percent, compared to the ANC's 20 percent. This could position DA veteran Helen Zille, who campaigned on issues such as fixing potholes and water pipe leaks, favorably for the mayoral position, contingent on the coalition agreements reached. The DA issued a statement indicating its intention to commence coalition discussions with “political parties that share a commitment to clean and accountable government, rooting out corruption, service delivery for all, the rule of law, and non-racialism”.