Can Gadi Eisenkot Unite Israel's Divided Opposition to Form a Government?

Following Israel's general election, opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot has been tasked with forming a new government after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition lost its parliamentary majority. President Isaac Herzog appointed the former military chief on Saturday, presenting a potential end to Netanyahu's extended term. Eisenkot has a 28-day window to assemble a coalition, with the possibility of a 14-day extension. He stated on X, "Now is the time to form a national emergency government. I will do everything to ensure we are worthy." However, Eisenkot faces significant hurdles due to conflicting stances among opposition parties on critical issues like national security, religion, and the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory. Neither Eisenkot nor Netanyahu commands the necessary 61-seat majority in the 120-member Knesset. Consequently, Arab-led parties hold considerable influence in the government formation process, despite Eisenkot and his potential partners' reluctance to depend on their support.

Eisenkot's potential coalition includes his Yashar party, the centre-left Democrats led by Yair Golan, Naftali Bennett's centre-right Together party, and Avigdor Lieberman's right-wing Yisrael Beiteinu. This bloc currently holds 48 seats, falling short of a majority. The Arab-led Ra’am (United List) and the Joint List, collectively holding 19 seats, have endorsed Eisenkot's bid. Their support would bring the anti-Netanyahu camp to 67 seats. Hadash is an Arab-Jewish party, Ta’al focuses on Palestinian citizens' rights, and Balad advocates for equal rights for all citizens. However, Eisenkot has ruled out including Arab parties in his government, and Lieberman opposes a minority administration reliant on their backing. Golan's Democrats, however, have shown willingness to partner with Ra’am and the Joint List, with Golan stating, "We must no longer accept Netanyahu’s racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes."

Netanyahu's religious-nationalist coalition has diminished from 64 seats in 2022 to 53, eight seats shy of a majority. His Likud party holds 27 seats, while Eisenkot's Yashar secured 21. A significant blow to Netanyahu's efforts came when United Torah Judaism, an ultra-Orthodox ally, declined to endorse any candidate during presidential consultations. While this impacts Netanyahu's immediate prospects, the party could still support him in future negotiations, particularly if their demands regarding compulsory military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews are met.

If Eisenkot cannot form a coalition, he might pursue a minority government supported by Arab parties from outside the coalition. Such a government lacks a parliamentary majority among its cabinet members and relies on external lawmakers for legislative support. Eisenkot could lead a minority administration with his four-party bloc, seeking parliamentary backing from Ra’am and the Joint List without granting them cabinet positions. These parties could negotiate policy concessions in return for their support. In 2021, Ra’am joined Bennett's government, marking the first time an independent Arab party participated in an Israeli coalition. That government dissolved after 18 months, largely due to disputes over settlements in the occupied West Bank and Palestinian statehood. Most Israeli parties oppose the creation of a sovereign Palestinian state, a stance shared by Netanyahu, who has rejected Palestinian statehood and promoted settlement expansion.

Alternative paths for Eisenkot include attempting to secure a majority by bringing in the ultra-Orthodox parties Shas and United Torah Judaism, which together hold 13 seats, potentially giving his bloc the required 61 seats. This would necessitate compromises on military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox students, a contentious issue. While Eisenkot and his allies have previously criticized these exemptions, Lieberman has indicated openness to compromise. United Torah Judaism has not endorsed Netanyahu, but Shas has supported him.

Another possibility is a unity government involving Yashar, Together, Israel Our Home, and Likud, commanding 67 seats. However, this would require Eisenkot and his partners to abandon their pledge to remove Netanyahu from power. If Eisenkot fails within the allotted time, President Herzog could task Netanyahu with forming a government. Should both fail, parliament could nominate another candidate, potentially leading to new elections if no government is formed within 100 days.

These negotiations are crucial for determining Israel's next prime minister, the composition of key ministries, and policies on the economy, military conscription, and the occupied Palestinian territory. Several members of Eisenkot's bloc have held significant government roles. Naftali Bennett, former prime minister, has opposed Palestinian statehood and advocated for annexing parts of the West Bank. Avigdor Lieberman, former finance minister, has proposed land swaps involving Arab communities in Israel and Jewish settlements in the West Bank. Eisenkot himself, after serving in Netanyahu's wartime cabinet, left due to disagreements over the conduct of the Gaza conflict, though he has not opposed the conflict itself but criticized Netanyahu's political priorities. Eisenkot has called the idea of a Palestinian state "delusional" and supports strengthening settlements.