Iran Tightens Domestic Security Amidst US Strike Threats and Internal Dissent

Iran's domestic security forces are operating at a heightened state of alert, intensifying their control over perceived threats to the government's authority during the ongoing conflict with the United States. Authorities have issued stern warnings to the public regarding severe penalties for any protests against the government and are reinforcing their grip on public spaces, reversing months of relaxed enforcement on dress codes. This strategic shift appears designed to project an image of unwavering adherence to the principles of the Islamic Republic, particularly after eight months of war and in the face of potential escalations in US attacks.

Mahjoob Zweiri, director of the Gulf Studies Center at Qatar University, noted that the Iranian authorities have successfully mobilized public support for the continuity of the Tehran government amidst these tensions. "They include not only IRGC but also some civilians, and this is likely to continue until the war finishes," he told Al Jazeera, referring to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC was established to uphold the principles of the 1979 Islamic revolution.

Harsh Punishments for Dissent

Iranian authorities have a history of employing severe punishments to suppress any form of opposition. The current war, which commenced on October 28 with US and Israeli strikes targeting Iranian leaders, has intensified this practice. On Sunday, the judiciary announced the execution of three young men who were arrested during nationwide protests in January. They were accused of attacking government offices and damaging public property near Tehran to aid the US and Israel.

The government characterizes anti-government protests as a "coup" attempt orchestrated by "terrorists" linked to the US and Israel. However, an independent United Nations fact-finding mission concluded that the authorities committed crimes against humanity during a brutal crackdown on protesters, which human rights groups claim resulted in thousands of deaths, predominantly on the nights of January 8 and 9. Foreign-based human rights organizations have reported that many political cases leading to executions are tainted by allegations of torture, forced confessions, and other due process violations. According to the Norway-based Hengaw Organization for Human Rights, Iran has executed at least 79 political or religious prisoners this year, including 40 individuals apprehended during the January protests. Some of these executions followed espionage convictions.

Political scientist Ali Alfoneh commented on the geopolitical situation, stating, "Iran is a country at war with the world’s lone superpower, whose strategy toward Tehran remains unclear, and with Israel, whose government pursues a declared policy of overthrowing the regime in Tehran, whether through economic and military warfare or by partitioning Iran through a US- and Israeli-backed civil war." He added, "Taking these circumstances into consideration, the authorities of the Islamic Republic are no more repressive than any other regime facing similar threats." Alfoneh suggested that in some instances, authorities have relaxed enforcement of laws concerning mandatory headscarves, alcohol consumption, and drug use, partly to divert public attention from political activism. "Repression appears to be reserved for matters of political freedom and for antiregime uprisings," he concluded.

Contrasting Scenes on the Streets

Evidence suggests that authorities are now actively suppressing what they perceive as public defiance of Iran's theocratic principles as the war progresses. In Tehran on October 30, hundreds of young Iranians, predominantly Gen Z, celebrated Halloween with costumes and makeup in cafes on Iranshahr Street. Within hours, security forces on motorcycles and plainclothes personnel dispersed the crowds and shut down cafes, with reports of assaults and detentions. Individuals enjoying the evening in nearby Artists Park were reportedly ordered to leave. Although authorities did not issue an official statement regarding the incident, they have since established pro-government stations and booths on the same street, where supporters engage in chanting "revolutionary" slogans and waving flags.

Pro-government demonstrators have occupied city squares and streets in Tehran since the war began, ostensibly to signal defiance against both domestic and external adversaries. As part of the "self-sacrifice" Janfada campaign, some participants receive military training and support at these locations to join the Basij, a paramilitary force affiliated with the IRGC that has been used to quell anti-government protests. Even prior to the Halloween incident, police had criticized gatherings on Iranshahr, Sanai, and other Tehran streets, which have become popular meeting points for young Iranians seeking avenues for self-expression amidst deteriorating living conditions exacerbated by the war, economic crisis, and domestic mismanagement. Tehran traffic police chief Teymour Hosseini remarked last month, "Those streets have unfortunately turned into a place where people cruise and walk around." He also indicated that gatherings of young people were a reason for recent police shutdowns of cafes and businesses.

The government continues to enforce a dress code, particularly for women, a policy in place since shortly after the 1979 revolution. However, following the nationwide Mahsa Amini protests of 2022-2023, women have increasingly disregarded headscarf mandates in public spaces across Tehran and other cities. Hossein Shariatmadari, a prominent hardline media figure, argued in an article that loose hijabs represent "one of the levers used by the enemy in the coming war" and warrant serious attention. He stated, "The enemy has been defeated in military confrontation with Islamic Iran and has now shifted a considerable part of its abilities towards war in economic and cultural areas, particularly through expanding loose hijab.".

War or Negotiations for the Future

State crackdowns have garnered some limited attention in local media, albeit for varied reasons. The reformist Shargh newspaper described the Halloween incident as a "tense night in Iranshahr," urging policymakers to understand public desires and provide engaging cultural opportunities. The Rouydad24 news website questioned the efficacy of treating young people's cultural preferences as security concerns. The ultraconservative Keyhan newspaper interpreted Halloween celebrations as evidence of "cultural alienation" undermining traditional practices like Nowruz, the Persian New Year. However, Iranian authorities have historically politicized domestic traditions, as seen in the restrictions and violence during Chaharshanbe Suri fire festival celebrations amidst protests.

Zweiri from Qatar University suggested that the outcome of negotiations between Iran and the US, or the escalation to a more severe conflict, will significantly influence the likelihood of further nationwide protests in Iran. Some Iranians perceive any current form of protest as an act of solidarity with foreign powers. "The second level of reality is the identity of being Iranian, which means no Iranian wants to be affiliated to an enemy that attacks and destroys the country," Zweiri explained. "Whether there is a deal or more war in the future will determine how Iran will be developing economically and politically and socially."