Putin Escalates Attacks on Ukraine's Economy Ahead of Peace Talks, Threatening a Harsh Winter

As Russia faces stalled ground advances in eastern Ukraine, it is intensifying its aerial assault, targeting the nation's energy infrastructure with missiles and drones earlier and more aggressively than in previous years. Analysts indicate the Kremlin's strategy now explicitly aims to cripple the Ukrainian economy. A United Nations investigation panel recently concluded that Russia's deliberate attacks on civilian infrastructure, particularly vital energy systems during the severe winter of 2025-2026, constitute war crimes and crimes against humanity. Experts predict this winter's attacks will be even more severe.

With fresh peace talks mediated by the US scheduled for next week, Russian President Vladimir Putin is escalating his campaign. John Lough, head of international partnerships at the New Eurasian Strategies Centre, stated that the Russian air campaign is "clearly aimed at destroying the Ukrainian economy." He also expressed concern that many of Kyiv's European allies may not fully comprehend the gravity of the developing situation in Ukraine or the potential financial strain on European partners.

Lough explained that Putin has concluded that a military victory in Donbas through increased troop commitment is unlikely, given Ukraine's successful summer offensive. "Putin has concluded the only way to break that is to actually break the economy, and they are doing that in a systematic way," Lough said.

Cristian Vlas, an Eastern Europe researcher at ACLED, warned of a "terrible humanitarian situation this winter and much earlier than last year." Civilian deaths have reached their highest point since the initial months of the war, with over 2,700 Ukrainian civilians killed by Russian strikes in 2026, according to ACLED data. The number of Russian strikes has steadily increased throughout 2026, rising from 3,650 in January to 5,532 in October. Ukraine has also increased its strikes inside Russia, conducting 2,302 attacks in October, targeting enterprises involved in weapons production, military airfields, and radar and communications facilities, according to Ukraine's Ministry of Defense. This summer, Ukraine also targeted warehouses of the Russian online retailer Wildberries.

Amidst these developments, US President Donald Trump suggested that Ukraine might need to cede territory for peace, a notion rejected by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who cited Ukraine's constitutional protection of territorial integrity. Russia's attacks now frequently target Ukraine's Black Sea exports, Danube River ports, industrial warehouses, railway infrastructure, and the steel industry. While some of this infrastructure has dual civilian and military use, experts note that recent attacks have increasingly targeted civilians directly. A particularly deadly incident occurred on Monday when Russia bombed a school building in Zaporizhzhia, used as a shelter and aid center, killing at least 55 Ukrainians. The site was targeted again by a drone on Sunday while rescuers searched for survivors. Moscow denies targeting civilians.

Major Ukrainian steel plants in Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhzhia were struck by ballistic missiles between August and October, leading to their shutdown. The city of Kryvyi Rih has reported significant socio-economic consequences and income loss for thousands of families due to the steel plant closures. Vlas highlighted that these strikes impact Ukraine's tax base and citizens' salaries. Combined with attacks on agriculture and grain exports, these actions appear to be a concerted effort by Moscow to create widespread economic disruption. Kateryna Stepanenko of the Institute for the Study of War noted that Russia is targeting various facilities, including malls and warehouses, to disrupt the flow and sale of goods. Furthermore, Russia has shifted from primarily nighttime strikes to include daytime attacks, aimed at disrupting daily business activities by triggering air alerts that halt operations in government buildings and businesses.

Strikes on energy infrastructure exacerbate economic disruption, leading to power and water outages that severely impact businesses. Russian forces have also begun targeting energy infrastructure in previously untouched areas, such as the western city of Rivne, posing new challenges for Ukraine's air defenses. The cumulative effect of these energy strikes is significant, with many power stations damaged beyond repair. Lough emphasized the "cumulative effect of this war, and the very great fatigue on the Ukrainian side," calling it a "very dangerous moment" with the economy strained.

Overnight into Sunday, Russia attacked the power grid in the Dnipropetrovsk region, leaving over 600,000 people without electricity. Widespread power outages were also reported in Kharkiv and Zhytomyr regions. In Kyiv, approximately 40 percent of buildings lacked heating as of Saturday. Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha warned that "Moscow is deliberately seeking to leave millions of Ukrainians without electricity, heating, and water as winter approaches," attempting to achieve through "cold and darkness what it cannot achieve on the battlefield."

Civilian casualties are rising, partly due to Russia's increased use of jet-powered Shahed drones and loitering munitions, which are difficult for Ukrainian forces to intercept. Ukraine faces a persistent shortage of US-made Patriot interceptors, crucial for downing ballistic missiles. Vlas noted a "staggering" surge in civilian fatalities in October. The International Rescue Committee (IRC) reports that financial distress is forcing civilians in southern and eastern Ukraine to abandon their homes or take significant risks for income, such as working on mine-contaminated land. Surveys in Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions indicate a high percentage of households are in urgent need of financial assistance, leading to life-changing decisions. For many in eastern Ukraine, economic pressure has been ongoing since 2014. Olga Kashuba of the IRC described growing economic anxieties and loss of income, citing the destruction of local businesses and warehouses by Russian strikes, which not only affects goods but also the livelihoods of thousands.