US, Russia, Ukraine Set for High-Stakes Talks on Security Guarantees Amid Lingering Doubts

High-stakes trilateral talks involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine are scheduled to commence in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, marking the first such discussions since February, with European participation also anticipated. The two-day discussions are expected to center on security guarantees, alongside efforts for de-escalation, humanitarian measures, and the potential for a broader settlement. The American delegation will be led by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who also serves as President Donald Trump's son-in-law. Officials indicated that prior to the main talks, they would meet with representatives from Ukraine, the EU, Nato, Germany, France, Britain, and Italy. "We expect to cover security guarantees, and then also, with regard to long-term security architecture between Russia and Europe, how to reduce future conflicts," a US official stated on Monday. "I do believe that now we're in a position where there is a shot at trying to make, you know, serious progress to end the war." Despite this official optimism, the likelihood of a significant breakthrough remains uncertain. Both Moscow and Kyiv continue to target each other's energy infrastructure, while Russia is pressing for substantial territorial concessions from Ukraine. Conversely, Kyiv is insisting on robust guarantees against future Russian aggression and has firmly rejected any surrender of its territory. "Our proposal is to bring the Europeans into the discussion after this trilateral and to try and run on parallel tracks so that they can both help solve the other," the US official added. Earlier on Monday, Mr. Kushner expressed his hope that the discussions would identify common ground. "This is an extremely complex and complicated conflict. We understand that difficult decisions lie ahead," he posted on X. Over the weekend, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas conveyed that she observed minimal signs of Russia's willingness to negotiate an end to the conflict. These talks follow a significant defeat for Mr. Trump's Republican Party in the US midterm elections. Mr. Trump, who took office nearly two years ago with a promise to swiftly resolve the war in Ukraine, stated in an interview with 60 Minutes, broadcast on Sunday, that he believed an agreement was imminent. "I believe we're very close to making a deal," he said. "I think we're going have it done, and I think it's going to happen and they're going end up with a little bit different shaped Ukraine." Daniel Fried, a former US assistant secretary of state for Europe during the George W. Bush administration, commented that the White House appeared to be continuing to offer concessions to Russia at Ukraine's expense, and potentially Europe's, without concrete evidence of Moscow's interest in negotiations beyond its own terms. "Jared Kushner seems to be now putting even more offers on the table, using language favoured by the Kremlin," Mr. Fried remarked. "So, having failed to move negotiations by putting pressure on Ukraine and offering economic concessions to Russia, the Americans are now offering even more to Russia – and I see no evidence that any of this is going to work," he concluded. Mr. Fried also noted that Mr. Trump was persisting despite a weakened negotiating position, with little indication that his strategy would benefit American interests. Matthew Boyse, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute's Centre on Europe and Eurasia, suggested that Russian President Vladimir Putin perceived an advantage in the negotiations and had little incentive to compromise. He indicated that Moscow viewed Mr. Trump as politically weakened following the midterm elections and increasingly eager to secure a diplomatic victory by ending the war. "Following the midterms, Moscow sees a much weaker President Trump who is now even more keen to be seen as a winner, such as by delivering an end to the war," Mr. Boyse explained. "Putin thinks he has the cards." Mr. Boyse recalled that previous negotiation rounds had yielded humanitarian outcomes, such as prisoner exchanges and the return of Ukrainian children taken to Russia, but had failed to address the fundamental disagreements hindering a resolution to the conflict. "If the history of these meetings since 2022 is a guide, you can be forgiven for being sceptical," he commented. Mr. Boyse further questioned Mr. Trump's readiness to employ economic pressure against Moscow, citing his actions that weakened his own influence, including pursuing energy deals and efforts to restore Russian oil and gas trade after signing legislation authorizing further sanctions.