How Kais Saied’s Populist Economic Experiment Brought Tunisia to the Brink of Collapse

Tunisians recently held demonstrations in Tunis carrying photographs of Tunisian President Kais Saied and chanting slogans against deteriorating living conditions under the banner, 'Enough of the absurdity, enough of the failure, enough of the injustice.' On the eve of the January 14, 2011 revolution, Tunisia was far from an ideal democracy or a booming Mediterranean economic tiger, suffering instead from restricted freedoms, widespread clientelism, and unequal development.

While the 2011 uprising sparked by a street vendor in Sidi Bouzid transformed the nation's political order, subsequent governments failed to achieve a parallel economic transition. Economic growth slowed, and public-finance imbalances worsened. However, prior to 2021, the state still performed its basic functions. By the summer of 2026, severe electricity and water cuts, a failing health system, and plunging purchasing power have pushed the country into an unprecedented crisis.

Coming to power in 2019 amid widespread disillusionment, Kais Saied bypassed traditional economic philosophies in favor of populist rhetoric. He claimed Tunisia's wealth had merely been plundered by corrupt figures associated with the old system, promising that recovering stolen funds, pursuing self-reliance, and establishing community companies would solve the nation's woes. In July 2021, he seized control of all powers to implement his vision.

Economic data from the World Bank tells the story of that project's outcome. Growth plummeted, unemployment stagnated at roughly 15 percent, and public debt surged from about 67.8 percent of GDP in 2019 to nearly 85 percent in 2024. With external financing narrowing, the state resorted to direct borrowing from the Central Bank and forced commercial banks to finance the Treasury, crowding out the private sector.

The policy of "self-reliance" failed to reduce debt, instead shifting the burden domestically before forcing renewed foreign borrowing under high costs and strained relations with the International Monetary Fund. Meanwhile, the aggressive pursuit of businesspeople decimated investment, and the community companies project largely failed, becoming dependent on state handouts rather than generating wealth.

While Saied inherited a struggling economy and faced external shocks like COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, and severe droughts, observers argue he must be judged by his consolidation of absolute authority and the subsequent worsening of poverty and living conditions. Tunisia's current reality stands as a stark lesson that grand slogans cannot replace rational leadership, economic openness, and sound institutional governance.