Visualizing the Global Energy Crisis: How the Iran War Upended Oil and Gas Supplies

Despite a Houthi attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh that left 12 people dead and 309 injured, the 25th World Petroleum Council Energy Congress is proceeding in Riyadh, according to Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation. Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Energy announced the start of the event on Sunday, which includes the 17th International Energy Forum (IEF) Ministerial held on the sidelines of Riyadh Energy Week through Thursday. Italy, cohosting the IEF, is participating via videolink, while Nigeria has sent a representative. The IEF encompasses 68 countries representing over 90 percent of global oil and gas supply and demand, featuring members such as Saudi Arabia, the United States, and Russia. This gathering arrives as the US-Israel war on Iran disrupts energy flows and forces nations to re-evaluate energy security. In this visual explainer, Al Jazeera examines global energy sources, Middle Eastern production volumes, and strategic reserves available to nations.

Energy powers everyday life, from heating homes to running factories, and is derived from fossil fuels, nuclear power, and renewables. Despite growth in renewables, fossil fuels still provide nearly 81 percent of global energy consumption, led by oil at 31.4 percent, coal at 25.9 percent, and natural gas at 23.5 percent. Traditional biomass, nuclear power, and other sources comprise the remainder. Because production is heavily concentrated in specific regions, disruptions anywhere send shockwaves through global markets, with the Middle East leading in oil production and North America dominating natural gas output, alongside major contributions from Russia and Central Asia.

Geography plays a crucial role in Middle Eastern energy dominance, relying on three narrow waterways to connect producers with global consumers. Prior to the Iran war, approximately 27 percent of global seaborne oil trade and nearly 20 percent of liquefied natural gas trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, the Bab al-Mandeb strait and the Suez Canal connect the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Mediterranean Sea. As the conflict has expanded and Yemen’s civil war has intensified, traffic through these chokepoints has declined, diverting shipments along longer routes around Africa.

Richard Matthews, director of consultancy and research at Gibson Shipbrokers in London, noted that this marks a major constriction of a critical maritime chokepoint. He highlighted that the Strait of Hormuz is uniquely significant because it lacks an alternative maritime route, making cargo volume disruptions particularly severe despite the presence of some pipelines.

Down the supply chain, consumers and businesses face rising costs for essential goods. Countries relying on Gulf oil, gas, and fertilizer encounter higher prices, shipment delays, and the challenge of finding alternative suppliers. Eritrea and Madagascar are most dependent on Middle Eastern oil, sourcing about 90 percent of their supply from the region, followed by Pakistan at 78 percent, and both Japan and Kenya at 77 percent.

Natural gas has proven even harder to substitute because shipments primarily move as liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates through the Strait of Hormuz. Asian importers depend most heavily on Middle Eastern gas, led by South Korea at 31 percent, India at 29 percent, Pakistan at 27 percent, and Taiwan at 26 percent, leaving poorer importers struggling to find affordable alternatives.

Emergency oil stocks have served as the primary cushion against supply reductions, though these reserves are depleting. Energy leaders caution that Western nations have minimal reserves left to deploy, with the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve hitting its lowest point since 1982. Amin Nasser, head of Saudi Aramco, stated at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London that commercial inventories have dwindled to less than 6 billion barrels, with most practically unavailable. The International Energy Agency previously released a record 400 million barrels in March and is preparing an additional 100 million barrels of crude and diesel. Meanwhile, a storm in the Gulf of Mexico and attacks in Saudi Arabia continue to threaten supplies, keeping oil prices above $100 a barrel. China maintains the largest emergency reserves by far at an estimated 1.4 billion barrels, followed by the United States at 413 million barrels and Japan at 263 million barrels.