Emaar Founder Mohamed Alabbar Forecasts Balanced Dubai Property Market Despite Regional Pressures

Dubai's property market is heading toward a healthy equilibrium next year, despite experiencing a slowdown due to the ongoing Iran war, according to Emaar Properties founder Mohamed Alabbar. Speaking at the AIM Congress in Dubai on Monday, Mr Alabbar noted that the sector is undergoing a period of adjustment. “I'm getting ready for 2027,” he told delegates. “A lot of supply is coming in, so I think there'll be a nice balance in the city.”

Addressing the broader impact of the continuing Iran war on Dubai's real estate sector, Mr Alabbar projected a modest market adjustment of 5 per cent to 10 per cent due to extraordinary circumstances. However, he added that if the situation stabilizes, the market could quickly rebound and accelerate.

As the largest listed developer in the emirate, Emaar is successfully navigating current uncertainties through the fundamental strength of its business operations. While some regional developers are offering steep discounts of 20 per cent to 50 per cent, Emaar has maintained its policy of avoiding price cuts. “Our policy: we sell good product. We don't give discounts,” Mr Alabbar stated, highlighting the company's strong cash flow and robust cash reserves.

The military conflict between Iran and the US and Israel, which began on February 28, has plunged the region into one of its most severe geopolitical crises in recent decades. Repeated attacks by Iran on the infrastructure of its Arab neighbors have impacted growth across multiple sectors, including hospitality, aviation, real estate, and tourism. Nevertheless, Mr Alabbar compared the Middle East situation to historical global conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine, noting that businesses with long-term strategies are well-equipped to weather such challenges.

Emaar currently has 90,000 units under production across 18 international markets and has maintained its pace of development, viewing the crisis as a temporary adjustment phase rather than a permanent setback. Backed by a strong cash position and low debt, the company plans to continue its expansion.

In June, Emaar announced plans to unveil an ambitious Dh200 billion ($55 billion) megaproject in Dubai capable of housing nearly 150,000 residents. Spanning over 4.5 million square meters, the master plan will incorporate residential towers, villas, mansions, Grade-A commercial offices, retail spaces, and luxury hospitality amenities. Emphasizing confidence in the local market, Mr Alabbar concluded that regional developers understand how to manage local issues effectively given the emirate's competitive and exciting economic policies.