Global Shipping Halved in Bab Al Mandeb Strait as Houthi Forces Take Control of Key Islands and Coastline

Ship traffic through the Bab Al Mandeb strait has plummeted by 50 percent following the Houthi rebels' takeover of Yemen's entire Red Sea coast and the critically positioned Perim Island situated in the middle of the waterway.

Preliminary data from Kpler indicates that total ship crossings dropped to 15 on Friday, down from 30 the previous day. Friday's traffic consisted of six vessels exiting the Red Sea and nine entering, carrying commodities such as crude, grains, and steel, alongside three ships operating in ballast.

This sharp decline coincides with the Iran-backed Houthis expanding their control over vital territories overlooking the Red Sea and the strait. On Thursday, the group captured the port city of Mokha, granting them enhanced surveillance capabilities over ship movements in the region.

Perim, also referred to as Mayyun, was seized alongside other crucial locations including Dhubab along the coast. Situated in the heart of the strait, Perim offers significant strategic advantages for monitoring vessels entering or exiting the Red Sea and those traveling toward the Suez Canal between Asia, the Gulf, and Europe.

“Mocha improves the Houthi position on the approaches, but Dhubab and Perim matter more for shipping,” Arsenio Longo, founder of tanker movement analytics specialists Huax, told The National. “They already had missile and drone range over Bab. Moving further south would put them much closer to vessels entering and leaving the strait and give them more options to maintain pressure on shipping.”

This increased pressure is expected to impact Saudi shipping heavily, as the Houthis announced a maritime embargo targeting vessels linked to the kingdom that pass through Bab Al Mandeb. Since the embargo was declared last month, ongoing attacks on passing ships have forced the kingdom to divert crude cargoes toward the Suez Canal and take longer alternative routes around Africa to reach Asian markets.

Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz—the alternative vital route for global crude shipments—remains largely restricted amid ongoing conflict between the US and Iran. As Houthi forces advanced along the Red Sea, oil prices surged close to $110 per barrel earlier in the week. Brent closed the week at $104.6 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded at $100 per barrel.

According to Kpler data, ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increased slightly to 14 on Friday compared to seven on Thursday, with 10 vessels exiting and four entering the waterway. Transits through the Arabian Gulf strait have experienced declines throughout the week due to retaliatory tanker attacks between Iran and the US. Prior to the outbreak of the war in February, the Strait of Hormuz facilitated the transport of over 20 million barrels of oil per day via more than 100 daily ship crossings, whereas current estimates stand at approximately 10 million bpd.