How the Record-Breaking El Nino Weather Phenomenon Could Bring Heavy Rainfall and Flooding Risks to the UAE and Gulf

The El Nino weather phenomenon, predicted to be one of the strongest on record, has been forecast to increase temperatures in many world regions – but in the Gulf its main effect could be to cause more rainfall. Larger amounts of precipitation may arrive in October and November, and from March to May, including severe bouts that could raise the risk of flooding, although this is not guaranteed.

Extreme weather conditions are expected to last into 2027, according to the World Meteorological Organisation. The UN weather agency forecasted that a near 100 per cent chance exists that El Nino will persist until February, fuelled by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures.

“El Nino generally tilts the Gulf and parts of the Arabian Peninsula towards wetter conditions, enhanced moisture transport and a greater chance of heavy rain episodes,” said Dr Diana Francis, associate professor and head of the Environmental and Geophysical Sciences (Engeos) Laboratory at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi.

If rainfall levels increase, “very intense downpours may become more likely,” according to Dr Andries-Jan de Vries, of the Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics at the University of Lausanne in Switzerland. “In combination with dry soils, with mountains and valleys, they can easily accumulate rainwater that can fall in a very short period of time, and that can then lead to flooding,” he said.

Their comments came after the UAE's National Centre of Meteorology released a statement on Friday saying the country is expected to escape the worst of the weather from the El Nino phenomenon, although the country could experience more rain. Parts of the UAE were hit by severe flooding in late March this year, almost two years after the country experienced its most extreme rainfall on record, late into what was described as the fifth-strongest El Nino on record.

A study in Nature Scientific Reports in June with the title “An extreme rainfall event over the United Arab Emirates in April 2024: Role of dynamic and thermodynamic drivers”, said that El Nino “may have contributed to a large-scale background environment favourable for above-normal April rainfall over the region”. After the 2024 floods, the authorities began investing heavily to improve drainage and make the country better able to cope with severe rains.

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation is a natural phenomenon in which the upwelling of water causes warmer sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, with knock-on effects on the global climate. An opposite phenomenon, La Nina, is linked to cooler temperatures in that part of the Pacific Ocean. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, El Nino and La Nina each last between nine months and a year and happen irregularly, typically every two to seven years.

While El Nino makes wetter conditions in the Gulf region more likely, it does not make them certain. “El Niño increases the likelihood of wetter conditions but does not guarantee them. Rainfall in the region varies greatly from one year to another,” said Dr Zouhair Lachkar, a senior research scientist in New York University Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Arabian Centre for Climate and Environmental Sciences.

Should there be increased rainfall in the UAE, the impact on the natural environment could be positive. Prof John Burt, director of NYU Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Arabian Centre for Climate and Environmental Sciences, said if El Nino brought more winter rain, it could lead to “a marked increase in plant growth across our deserts and mountains”.