Sweden Election Hangs in the Balance as Centre-Left Takes Narrow Lead and Far-Right Slips

Sweden's centre-left opposition bloc has claimed a narrow lead as the far-right party experienced a drop in support, with approximately 95 percent of the districts counted. The Swedish Election Authority announced on Monday that the four opposition parties are projected to secure 176 seats in the 349-seat parliament, known as the Riksdag, while the remaining 173 seats are expected to go to the four parties supporting the current conservative-led government.

Final results may remain uncertain until early votes and overseas ballots are fully tallied on Wednesday. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is vying for a second term, having led the nation since 2022 through a centre-right coalition dependent on the Sweden Democrats, a party with neo-Nazi roots. Despite the left-leaning bloc's thin majority, Ulf Kristersson could potentially remain in office if ideological tensions prevent the opposition from successfully forming a government.

The Sweden Democrats suffered an unexpected decline, dropping three percentage points compared with the 2022 general election and falling from 20.5 percent to 17.5 percent. This represents the first time the far-right party has faced a loss in voter support since entering parliament in 2010. Meanwhile, Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats maintained the top spot, though their 28.1 percent vote share marks one of their weakest performances in over a century, complicating efforts to build a stable working majority.

Political scientist Anders Sannerstedt from Lund University noted that the dip in support might stem from shifting voter priorities, as past voters often supported the far right primarily for its refugee stance rather than its broader platform. Even with a smaller vote share, the Sweden Democrats maintain significant political leverage. A deeply divided legislature ensures that any future administration will operate with a fragile margin, keeping the party positioned as a major power in parliament.