Emirates Set to Restore Prewar Seat Capacity by Year-End Amid Rebounding Travel Demand

Emirates airline expects to restore its full prewar seat capacity by the end of the year as travel demand through Dubai rebounds following months of disruption caused by the Iran war.

Speaking at the Arabian Travel Market, Adel Al Redha, Emirates' deputy president and chief operations officer, told The National on Tuesday that the airline is currently operating at about 95 per cent of its February capacity and has returned to almost all of its destinations. “At about 95 per cent, you're almost there,” he said, adding that prewar capacity is expected to be reached “by the end of the year,” although there are a “few places where we haven’t increased the frequencies.”

While Emirates declined to disclose the exact financial cost of the disruption, Mr Al Redha confirmed that the airline still expects to report a profit for the current financial year. “I expect the airline to be profitable,” he stated. “Not to the level as we were expecting it, but we've been doing fine. Emirates has been adapting to the situation. We have our aircraft ready to be deployed, we have our crew ready to be utilised. So, our level of readiness has been really high.”

Travel demand to and through Dubai has surged, with strong bookings reported for July and August, alongside expectations of a further rise in September. “We're seeing September demand is coming, we’re seeing so much demand is coming,” Mr Al Redha noted.

Fuel Prices Affect Performance

Despite the recovery, the disruption has impacted Emirates’ financial performance. Mr Al Redha explained that overall numbers were affected by shifting passenger levels over the previous six months, while higher fuel costs and longer flight paths—stemming from airspace restrictions—have added to operating expenses. Fuel typically accounts for roughly 33 per cent to 35 per cent of Emirates’ operating costs.

“The fuel cost has been the higher element of our operation caused due to the disruptions ... the price escalations and price variation from one day to another day,” he said. “We know all airlines, including Emirates, have been exposed to a higher fuel cost because fuel prices have gone up. We have been exposed to rerouting or due to closure of some airways, having to fly longer route, which is costing us more fuel.”

Airfares Unpredictable

When asked whether rising jet fuel prices would drive up airfares, Mr Al Redha responded: “I know there have been adjustments in the fares. All airlines have been subjected to that due to the higher operating costs. Moving forward, I wouldn't want to predict anything. For the past six to eight weeks, there have been much fewer escalations [in the conflict]. So, we are seeing some sort of stability in terms of escalations and that is reflected also on the demand and traffic.”

Emirates’ commercial teams are actively managing fare adjustments in response to climbing fuel prices and operational disruptions, he added.

Increase in Demand and New Routes

Demand is picking up across several major markets, including the UK, Europe, the Far East, India, the US, and Canada. The airline carried 8.7 million passengers in July and August, up from 4.7 million in March and April, matching the passenger volume of the previous summer.

The carrier currently flies to 138 destinations, with a new route to Helsinki scheduled to launch on October 1.

Berlin and Tehran Routes

Regarding direct Tehran services, Mr Al Redha noted that any resumption decision would be left to the authorities and would depend on future reviews and demand. “I think it’s premature to talk about it now,” he said, while also declining to commit to a specific start date for Emirates’ planned service to Berlin, noting that internal reviews and terms are still being completed.

A380 Phase-Out by 2040

Emirates is also preparing for the eventual phase-out of its Airbus A380 fleet, which is expected to remain in operation until around 2040. “There will be a phase-out because we can only operate the aircraft up to a certain limit because it becomes very difficult to maintain it, very expensive to operate it. And we have taken that [phase-out] into consideration, by introducing the Boeing 777X into the loop,” Mr Al Redha said. “But obviously, the 777X will not be able to take over the capacity of the A380, and that is a shame. That's where you know we're sad not to have this aircraft operate with us forever.”

Emirates currently operates 116 superjumbos, with about 90 in active service and the remainder undergoing maintenance or upgrades. Additionally, the airline has received 27 Airbus A350 aircraft out of a total order of 73, with the 28th expected imminently, alongside more than 300 Boeing aircraft on order.

The A350 will be utilized for flights to Helsinki next month, followed by Larnaca, Malta, Nairobi, and Hamburg from late October, and Mauritius in November. Meanwhile, Emirates has completed retrofitting work on 104 aircraft, bringing the total number of planes featuring its latest cabin products and premium economy to 137, a figure projected to reach 155 by the end of December.