Navigating the Crisis: Tracking Saudi Arabia's Alternative Oil Routes from Yanbu to Sohar

Saudi Arabia’s oil exports faced a severe setback following drone attacks that disabled a section of the East-West pipeline, halting the flow of 4-5 million barrels per day (bpd) to global markets. Repair timelines remain uncertain, with The Associated Press estimating a three to five-week duration based on feedback from two regional officials. The 1,200km (746-mile) pipeline links primary oil fields in the east to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea coast, enabling exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing disruptions since the United States-Israel war on Iran began on February 28. As the world's second-largest oil producer, these supply interruptions carry substantial implications for worldwide energy markets, prompting Al Jazeera to consult experts regarding available alternatives, buyer impacts, and effects on kingdom revenues.

Total crude loadings dropped significantly from over 7.5 million bpd in January and February down to roughly 2.3 million bpd in August and about 2.1 million bpd during the first half of September, marking a decline exceeding 70 percent. Analysts note that actual figures could be slightly higher due to shuttle tankers navigating Hormuz with tracking transponders deactivated.

Exploring Export Alternatives

Saudi exports traditionally rely on two main passages: the Gulf in the east via the Strait of Hormuz, and the Red Sea in the west via the Suez Canal, Sumed Pipeline, or the Bab al-Mandeb strait.

Route One: The Strait of Hormuz
Before the crisis, the majority of Saudi crude exited through Hormuz, utilizing terminals at Ras Tanura and Ras al-Ju’aymah, the former averaging roughly 5.4 million bpd in 2025. This passage is the most economical route to Asian markets, which purchase the vast majority of Saudi crude.

With western pipelines offline and southern Red Sea routes hostile, experts indicate Saudi Arabia must route more exports back through the Gulf, despite heightened risks, increased costs, and logistical challenges. Rishi Rajanala, research specialist in Oil Americas at LSEG Data & Analytics, noted that options include shipping more crude from Gulf terminals and utilizing ship-to-ship transfers outside the strait near Sohar in Oman. Additional strategies involve drawing from western stored reserves through the Sumed Pipeline or executing a phased restart of damaged infrastructure. Richard Matthews, director of consultancy and research at Gibson Shipbrokers, warned that returning to Hormuz increases freight costs and inefficiencies, with tankers potentially going 'dark' by turning off AIS transponders to reduce attack risks while coordinating with the US Navy. Rahul Choudhary, vice president of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy, observed rising Hormuz export volumes in September alongside Aramco offering additional loadings out of Sohar.

Route Two: The East-West Pipeline to Yanbu
Linking processing facilities in Ghawar and Abqaiq to Yanbu port, the pipeline operates at a maximum capacity of approximately 7 million bpd. Crude shipped from Yanbu historically travels onward through the Red Sea either south via Bab al-Mandeb or north through the Suez Canal.

While southern shipments toward Asia must pass through the Bab al-Mandeb strait, recent military offensives by Iran-backed Houthi forces in September resulted in the seizure of Mocha, Dhubab, Mayyun Island, and a declared maritime embargo against Saudi ports. Consequently, tankers wishing to reach Asia must travel north through the Suez Canal or discharge cargo at Egypt’s Ain Sokhna terminal into the Sumed pipeline for Mediterranean transport. According to HSBC Global Investment Research, alternative routings around the Cape of Good Hope significantly extend voyages and increase shipping expenses.

Choudhary anticipates a potential partial pipeline restart within weeks at reduced capacity, helping mitigate export shortfalls alongside increased dark-fleet activity.

Why Trucking is Infeasible

Road transport remains impractical given that replacing a single day's export volume of 5-7 million bpd would require a 500km convoy of 25,000 to 35,000 tanker trucks. In contrast, a single Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) transports roughly 2 million barrels per voyage, cementing maritime shipping and pipelines as the only viable logistical solutions.

Impact on Global Markets and Buyers

Although strategic reserves and stockpiles initially cushioned oil prices, Brent crude has climbed above $105 a barrel as the outage duration lengthens. Major Asian and European buyers—including China, South Korea, Japan, India, and the US—are experiencing disruptions and turning to alternative suppliers in the North Sea, the Americas, and Central Asia. This shift places particular pressure on refiners configured specifically for Middle Eastern sour crude grades like Arab Light and Arab Medium.

Implications for Saudi Revenues

With petroleum product sales accounting for more than half of government revenues—generating 606.5 billion riyals ($162bn) in 2025—sustained disruptions threaten public finances. UBS Research forecasts the 2026 budget deficit reaching 5 percent of GDP. Louis Vincent-Gave of Gavekal Research suggests that prolonged blockages could force the Saudi government to sell off external assets to cover immediate financial obligations.